An overdone bear rally that shall end soon

7 jul 2020

FBMKLCI
Due to unprecendented market intervention by various central banks, we are witnessing an increasingly volatile market. Gone are the days where market moves in orderly manner with orderly pullback in between.
Instead, corrective waves are exhibiting strong movements akin to impulsive moves.

Market can be imagined as having two throttles at extreme ends of bullish-neutral-bearish spectrum.
Instead of slow/gradual transition, market now switches gear swiftly to either bullish or bearish throttle, hence the dramatic moves and being coined as Kangaroo market. Excess of bullishness will breed dramatic sharp rebound that die suddenly when the 'long' boat is overloaded, ensued by excess bearishness for dramatic decline, which die suddenly when the 'short' boat is overloaded, rinse and repeat.
Despite the potential erratic moves, I'm extremely bearish biased for the moment, and expecting the dramatic up/down swing in the nett will yield (ugly) negative return to stock market in the long run.

In near term, I'm anticipating a dramatic decline in FBMKLCI, which will be widely regarded by everyone as a 'healthy' pullback/retracement from March low rally, followed by a strong sharp rebound which will be 'celebrated' widely as resumption of bull rally.
However, this decline followed by sharp rebound more likely will be the Wave 1 decline and Wave 2 rebound of an unfolding 5-waves decline in disguise.