EURUSD Top-Down Analysis (Long and then Short)
Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 45 - Nov 02
M > Price has support of downward resistance trend-line. We can see two W patterns and this provides two targets to the downside. Both targets are near 0.382 and 0.618 Fib levels on last monthly bullish impulse.
W > We saw deceleration of price for 7 weeks before a drop. Price moved up again to be in a range it created during deceleration to finally drop again last week. Price has not yet dropped till last support it had created. Switching to line chart we can see an M formation that price has created with current drop. We can expect a pull up till neck of M formation before continuing with bearish move.
D > As suggested in analysis last week, price dropped breaking daily supply/ demand zone. Neck of M formation is bottom of this zone and we can expect price to move upwards to test the zone now as resistance before continuing with downward move.
As per COT EUR saw closure major Long and few Short, reducing net positions further. EXY however gained strength during the said week but it weakened a lot last week.
Institutions, since last month, have been reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short positions, with about 50K Long positions closed and 11K short positions opened so far. In Long term EUR pairs will go bearish specially EURUSD whereas in short term institutions are building the market for their gains by capturing Short and exiting Long position at higher price. With Institutions currently holding about 217K Long positions against 61K Short, will continue to sway market in short term either way. Hence for all EUR pairs we continue to recommend following short term trend with good risk management.
4H > In its bearish move price can continue to drop further till daily support before reversing for a pull up to test neck of M formation as we can also see bullish divergence. We can see another M formation and price can continue to further rise to capture more liquidity.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with Gold, Silver and CHFJPY and negative correlation with USDCHF and USDCAD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 45 - Nov 02
M > Price has support of downward resistance trend-line. We can see two W patterns and this provides two targets to the downside. Both targets are near 0.382 and 0.618 Fib levels on last monthly bullish impulse.
W > We saw deceleration of price for 7 weeks before a drop. Price moved up again to be in a range it created during deceleration to finally drop again last week. Price has not yet dropped till last support it had created. Switching to line chart we can see an M formation that price has created with current drop. We can expect a pull up till neck of M formation before continuing with bearish move.
D > As suggested in analysis last week, price dropped breaking daily supply/ demand zone. Neck of M formation is bottom of this zone and we can expect price to move upwards to test the zone now as resistance before continuing with downward move.
As per COT EUR saw closure major Long and few Short, reducing net positions further. EXY however gained strength during the said week but it weakened a lot last week.
Institutions, since last month, have been reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short positions, with about 50K Long positions closed and 11K short positions opened so far. In Long term EUR pairs will go bearish specially EURUSD whereas in short term institutions are building the market for their gains by capturing Short and exiting Long position at higher price. With Institutions currently holding about 217K Long positions against 61K Short, will continue to sway market in short term either way. Hence for all EUR pairs we continue to recommend following short term trend with good risk management.
4H > In its bearish move price can continue to drop further till daily support before reversing for a pull up to test neck of M formation as we can also see bullish divergence. We can see another M formation and price can continue to further rise to capture more liquidity.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with Gold, Silver and CHFJPY and negative correlation with USDCHF and USDCAD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
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