EURHUF

28 mar 2019

There is no European city that offers the lowest cost of living and a modern lifestyle in a beautiful environment with historical monuments as uniquely as Budapest. A weak Forint supports tourism, although maybe the less sustainable cheap-tourism, and with an all-time EURHUF-high of 331,78 in summer 2018 it may have reached a point for a retrace. Although Hungary´s economy looks as if it is growing stable (increase in GDP, less unemployment, rising building costs) poverty in rural areas is rising faster than ten years ago, and people are not only moving to the capital but are also leaving the country for higher income. Companys that came to Hungary because of low taxes and wages now see more and more strikes and depressed work mentality. At a certain point, a low wage cannot compensate the productivity and it weakens the country in the long term. To find a balance for this "buy out" economists forecast the EURHUF to go back to an average of around 280. From the technical point of few, this may come in the next years. In the 10y supercycle, we still see an uptrend with lows getting weaker since 2015. There is potential for a breakout to cross 333 in the next month, or, and this more likely in my opinion, we will see a retrace to 305 after short-period highs around 324. For the summer I have chosen to go short. Stop 333, Target 300-305, timing: End of September 2019. This is not a forecast, it is just an idea for further happy little accidents :) Cheers