Double bullish divergence on ETHBTC

7 mar 2018

Everyone is looking at a possible head-and-shoulders top on ETHBTC (pattern forming since January 2018), and currently the price is at the neckline and showing a very significant bullish divergence on RSI. Both highs and lows diverge between price and RSI on several timeframes (4h shown). There's also a confluence of fib retracement (50%) and historical support at around 0.073 level which further strengthens the support.

So my view is based on the the following technical indicators:
- H&S pattern since January is creating a bearish pressure, but remember that H&S patterns in general can also indicate trend continuation;
- strong bullish RSI divergence on both highs and lows;
- historical support level around 0.073 (current price);
- 50% fib retracement at the same level;
- ETHUSD went mostly sideways during recent BTCUSD rally, opening it for more upside compared to BTC.

Regarding fundamentals:
- ETH is currently processing roughly 3.5x more transactions daily compared to BTC;
- Number of active ETH sender addresses is beginning to overtake BTC;
- BTC is still dominant in the amount of value transferred;
- Ever growing use cases, developments and active dapps for Ethereum network;

Taking all of the above into account, I'm bullish on both ETHBTC and ETHUSD. This is not a trading advice, just my view. Please do your own research and invest responsibly.
Your comments are very welcome. Happy trading!

18 mar 2018

Operación cerrada manualmente

Well, that worked moderately well until March 11. Lesson learned is that all the indicators just help you determine the *most likely* trend, the real price action that follows is at future's discretion. There were also some bearish news that hit ETH harder than BTC, hence the negative outcome.
Another point that I often stress about ETHBTC ratio is that TA on it is limited since it to a large extend just follows 1/BTC. I also contains a mixed result of fiat to ETH and BTC actions.