Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84.
Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy.
Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219.
News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024
Fed Policy Outlook:
Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities.
Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible.
Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy.
Stock Market Performance:
S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019.
Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date.
April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic.
Economic Indicators:
Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes.
Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June.
Global Developments:
China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery.
Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
Corporate News:
Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions.
Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector.
Investment Considerations:
Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment.
Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend.
Climate Risk & Regulation:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain:
Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption.
Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84.
Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy.
Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219.
News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024
Fed Policy Outlook:
Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities.
Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible.
Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy.
Stock Market Performance:
S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019.
Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date.
April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic.
Economic Indicators:
Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes.
Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June.
Global Developments:
China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery.
Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
Corporate News:
Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions.
Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector.
Investment Considerations:
Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment.
Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend.
Climate Risk & Regulation:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain:
Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption.
Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
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