SPX - Half Full or Half Empty?

4 mar 2020

BLUF: What is the one dynamic that "Market Makers" love? Volatility = Opportunity = Huge Profits given the right Leverage(s). What you see in the "Drink of Volatility" is nothing but 80+ or 100+ bps moves...its not about Price but Energy, it just comes down to who is pushing and who is pulling! Swings, Momentum, Herd Psychology...when it looks like all is tanking and the flip to a short vehicle well you fade that even when its natural to go w/the pack...Nothing is as it seems!!!

You see Models are based on "Assumptions" and in an ever changing chaotic environment the conditions are constantly being reset...within seconds, right in front of you...Did you Fookin see it? It's not visible...its an equation of "Muscle Memory" and "Multi-Decisional Execution," it just "Emerges"...combat teaches many things, one of the first is "Adapt or Die." We are "Conditioned Creatures of Habit" who craves consistency, safety and survival at all cost...know your limits...it's go time...Indecision Kills!

SuperTuesday is Done, so move the FookOn (Unequivocally T has it for 4 more years, Who cares...move out)...FOMC shits there collective pants and lowers FFR by 50 bps...market tanks, pauses and resets the probabilities for at least x2 more cuts because its Never Enough Folks!...either the Fed(s) relinquishes or the big reset comes down like a Fookin lightening bolt or Not...TBD. Recession? I have NoFookinClue...in my two cent opinion we have a "Goldilocks Economy" currently, the KungFluFookinVirus will reset the current quarter (folks it just pushes everything to the right), the consumer/household is in good shape...Please Fookin Stop with the End of the Fookin World Nothing is left but FookinGold/BTC Hysteria...if thats what you want then turn on FookinFox & FookinZeroHedge....forFookSake...get a fookin life!

Maybe we need a recession to reset the environment....Again it's Not the Fookin End of the Fookin World! Ohhh Sell everything Buy Gold/Ohhh Chinamen & Socialists are comin for us all/ohhh FookinWhatchaMaDigger is taking away your TV...STOP w/the Fookin Faqawi Tribe BS...the level of Incompetence and pure hysteria is pegged out! Either you see the opportunity in front of you or you do not...I do not care what you think you believe....What is the environment in front of us and how do we navigate through it?

Process....Manage your Trade(s) and have a Fookin Plan! Spidey-Senses on High Alert!

Cheers...see you @ Happy Hour! Head(s) on a Swivel!

4 mar 2020

Nota

Given the lack of clarity, a risk-on environment will not come on the back of rate cuts alone. Easier policy is needed to support financial market function and create the accommodation that will support a return to activity when the crisis ends. But it might not diminish risk aversion in the near term. For the time being, we may be a in a one-step forward, twos-steps back phase of market reactions to news and policy.

Eventually, that will shift back to two-steps forward, one-step back. There will be another side to this crisis. We just can’t see it yet. If you are looking for some optimism, Bloomberg reports that rising pollution levels in China indicate the country is getting back to work.

Bottom Line: The Fed will deliver more rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Just because they are not met with immediate market gains doesn’t mean they aren’t necessary or won’t be effective in supporting the economy. In the near-term, the negative news flow and lack of clarity on the outlook will tend to depress risk appetites and thus market participants may not react as jubilantly to Fed policy moves as they might in a different economic environment.

blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/03/04/fed-cant-solve-this-alone/

4 mar 2020

Nota

Mortgage Rates Drop to 3%

calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/30-year-mortgage-rates-at-30.html

Back in 2013, I wrote "Predicting the Next Recession". Since then, I've updated that post several times, most recently last September.

In that post I noted that the next recession could be caused by ...

"An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable ..."
emphasis added
Now that a pandemic is here, the question is: Will the economy just slow down, or will there be a recession?

calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/pandemic-slowdown-or-recession.html

4 mar 2020

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4 mar 2020

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4 mar 2020

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