ES broke the Fib 50% retrace...
On 8.25 ES broke above the 4200 psychological number which also happens to be the top end of that 7 day range from June and 8 day range from earlier this month.
There is a very clear head and shoulders trying to form and based on the economic data coming out on the 26th and what J. Powell says in Jackson Hole, ES could run up or the bottom could fall out. We won't know until it happens.
Majority of economists agree that "we haven't seen the bottom yet". If numbers are bad tomorrow, ES will most likely head back down. If the numbers are good, ES is poised to head back towards that 50% Fib retrace again. However its gotta get through that 4200 level and stay above it.
IF ES can get above 4200 with good volume, it has a demand zone from 4213 to about 4221. The 50% Fib retrace is 4227.75. Above that the next target would be 4249 on its way to the Fib 61.8% retrace level at 4364.75. There is a lot of resistance between the 50% and 61.8%, but the close ES gets to it, the harder it is to remain Bearish.
IF all the economic data tomorrow is bad and the market reacts negatively, ES would need to get below that 4200/4073 range for downward continuation. At that point the case for the Bears is playing out and it would be extremely hard to be Bullish below that range. There is quite a bit of resistance on the way down so the potential for some more ranged out activity is very real. The first target below 4200 is 4172/4167 demand, below that is 4161/4153 demand.
There is a very clear head and shoulders trying to form and based on the economic data coming out on the 26th and what J. Powell says in Jackson Hole, ES could run up or the bottom could fall out. We won't know until it happens.
Majority of economists agree that "we haven't seen the bottom yet". If numbers are bad tomorrow, ES will most likely head back down. If the numbers are good, ES is poised to head back towards that 50% Fib retrace again. However its gotta get through that 4200 level and stay above it.
IF ES can get above 4200 with good volume, it has a demand zone from 4213 to about 4221. The 50% Fib retrace is 4227.75. Above that the next target would be 4249 on its way to the Fib 61.8% retrace level at 4364.75. There is a lot of resistance between the 50% and 61.8%, but the close ES gets to it, the harder it is to remain Bearish.
IF all the economic data tomorrow is bad and the market reacts negatively, ES would need to get below that 4200/4073 range for downward continuation. At that point the case for the Bears is playing out and it would be extremely hard to be Bullish below that range. There is quite a bit of resistance on the way down so the potential for some more ranged out activity is very real. The first target below 4200 is 4172/4167 demand, below that is 4161/4153 demand.
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