#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 6.09 - 6.14
Actualizado
Last Week :
Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge.
This Week :
Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that.
Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower.
IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well.
We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5386.50 - 5336
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between
5341 - 36 Key Support
IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50
5432 - 27 Key Resistance
5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means
IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge.
This Week :
Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that.
Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower.
IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well.
We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5386.50 - 5336
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between
5341 - 36 Key Support
IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50
5432 - 27 Key Resistance
5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means
IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
Comentarios
So far Globex found buying at Key Support and we moved back inside the Edge, need to be careful here as if we can't get back over 5352 - 56 then there is potential for all this Supply we have been building inside the Edge from last Thursday to start leaking back down towards lower VAH, for us to maintain this 5386 - 36 range we would need to hold above 52-56 if not careful as it can just leak all day lower.Comentarios
So far today we had Globex make another push out of 5370.50 - 66.50 Mean over the Edge top and failed under Previous Day high and moved inventory down into 56 - 52 area, as mentioned this is the areas where price will want to keep balancing around and returning to while we decide where to go. Few things to note for today, we have building Supply in this 50 - 70s areas and over since Friday's flush, we have sellers over 5370 and we have Poor and Weak Previous day low which lines up with Friday RTH low and to the tick at Key Support of 5341 which makes it visually weak as size could take it. For now we are holding this 52 - 56 area and we can continue balancing above it building more supply but one thing to watch out of today is IF we don't get the buying to push the market over 5366.50 - 70.50 then buyers in these areas might start selling out and if shorts see the Supply they can drop the bid and new shorts could come in which would create competing selling to possibly drive the prices lower and IF we eventually build enough Supply and can get outside this 56-52 area we could see continuation towards Key Support at 5341 - 36 to test that Poor Low, IF that happens that would be spot to watch because IF we take it out we could continue leaking towards VAH into 5325-20 area to fill the buyers there and retest our break out from last Wednesday. For us to maintain stability today best case is we just balance in 5350s - 70s area again and of course for anything higher we would need to accept over 70.50 and have stronger buyers come in to push through those areas, for now we have been building Supply here for some time with no upside so need to be careful with longs.This could take some time to build up and happen later in RTH if it does or doesnt go before then.
Comentarios
On the other hand if this was just a flush of supply from over 70 area and this was all the selling into 56-52 that we get then possible we head for the high again over 70 and if that gets taken we could continue grinding towards Key Resistance and maybe a push over it to test above VAL bottom.Comentarios
We fixed the poor lows but Key Support held again and we are rotating back to the Edge, now need to be careful shorting if we take out 52-56 again today then we could see a move back inside the Means towards the top of it and IF we take out 70.50 - 66.50 that would give us more juice for upper Key Resistance or towards it, if not at least a move back inside the Means is possible as long as we hold over Key SupportComentarios
What a blast, Globex pushed over Key Resistance and consolidated under VAL and a big push through on the morning Data. Today is a day to be careful because on higher TF we pushed up right into a Key Edge which is this 5418 - 48 area so need to be careful with looking for too much if any continuation above that or careful on returns back in if we do push out, we have more market moving events coming today so it could still make a push to tag above VAH at 5451 area if not then we could just be building Supply under it in the Mean area of this 5463 - 5393 Value area. Holding above 5432 - 27 we are in 5477.50 - 5427 Intraday Range levels for it are 5443 - 47 // 5461.50 - 57.50 Intrarange means and 5477.50 - 72.50 Key Resistance, for acceptance in this range we would need to see a push over 5247 - 43 and be able to balance above without coming back in, if not then we could just be building Supply under it and eventually find way back towards 5432 - 27 and maybe under BUT we might need to spend time building supply up here.Comentarios
Extension into 57.50 - 60s into the top of VAH area is still possible later today on data, I would not be short or long at this point as the main trades today were move away from 5432 - 27 Key Resistance into the 47 - 43 Level for a push over it into VAH bottom tag and back fill back under after the first touch. Now we are just balancing under VAH and there are still chances to visit 5457.50 - 61 area into the top of VAH and chance to flush what we will build up into 32 - 27, with Fed coming either or both can still happen and at this point it would be easy to get chopped up around here while trying to catch one of them. Better to wait for tomorrow unless scalping around this tighter consolidation.
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