Welp I guess just buy anything (priced in $)

29 nov

The dollar is about to go down heavily. Stuff priced in dollars - for example, equities and crypto - will go up correspondingly.
Let's look at this weekly chart of the DXY, which is the dollar versus a basket of other currencies, overlaid with the Fed Funds Rate, which is, simplistically, the main interest rate.

We see that when rates go up, the dollar goes up. The inverse is also true. This relation is because when interest rates are low, it has an effect similar to printing money, where the *value* of the dollar is diluted by all the new dollars coming into circulation.

The markets are forward-looking. The DXY started its parabolic run upwards in H2 2021 in advance of the actual raise in the interest rate. It broke the parabola also in advance of the rate being tapered - that is, rates still increased for a little, but by less and less.

Then rates went sideways and so did the dollar, in a multi-year range with clearly defined support and resistance.

Now, rates are coming down again - and the dollar will fall. It tapped the top of the range, made a little exuberant Swing Failure Pattern to the next weekly resistance, and formed a technical high (the Low of the highest candle was just taken on close by this week's candle.
Most likely path is now to the bottom of the range at ~100, then bounce and continue down to previous support at ~89.

Coming on top of the existing market euphoria around US elections, and the all-time highs in SPY and Bitcoin, this is likely to trigger a parabolic run up in *all* risk assets. Oddly, safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver will I think *also* rise, because they are inflation hedges - the original meaning of inflation, of course, being inflation of the currency.