Dollar & Bitcoin: You are and were warned!

4 may 2022

just now
I warned for a 'sell the news' event for the Dollar earlier this week, it was pretty obvious the dollar was overextended. However the dollar remains long term bullish and I do see much higher targets for the months / years to come. 107 is the next target for the DXY which could take a few months at least, before we'll get there. I expect some short term strength of the euro and the DXY to chop around a little until Friday.

Friday will be CRUCIAL for Bitcoin and the overal risk-on market such as the Nasdaq and the S&P500 . I would not be surprised to see some losses on big indexes and especially another long liquidation attempt in crypto. Bitcoin could revisit 37/38K, 37K is crucial to hold to keep a short term uptrend in crypto. Below 37K there's a lot of pain for the crypto markets comparable to what we have seen earlier this year.

A 50BPS hike is not bullish for the market in general even if the Fed Futures overestimated with 75-100BPS. We are in a mark down phase regardless of any dead cat bounces ahead.