US Dollar (DXY) - Short opportunity post NFP
Last week NFP data surprised to the downside with an actual data of -33k vs an expected 82k. However, the average hourly earnings and unemployment rate were better than expected, coming in at 0.5% and 4.2% respectively.
We are holding on to a short bias on the dollar with the following analysis -
1) Price has completed a minimum expectation at the recent high of 94.27, forming a 3-wave structure from the 91.02 low.
2) Price has been moving up in a corrective nature, giving us the expectation that we might see a 'trend' continuation after the correction completes.
3) There is a divergence formed, signifying a lost in momentum, and a potential reversal.
4) Based on the higher degree wave analysis, we are still expecting a 5th wave lower. This gives us the confluence to look for a short opportunity on the lower degree .
Looking into next week economic calendar, we do have some tier 1 US data - the Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. These risk events might present us a catalyst to move the dollar next week.
We are holding on to a short bias on the dollar with the following analysis -
1) Price has completed a minimum expectation at the recent high of 94.27, forming a 3-wave structure from the 91.02 low.
2) Price has been moving up in a corrective nature, giving us the expectation that we might see a 'trend' continuation after the correction completes.
3) There is a divergence formed, signifying a lost in momentum, and a potential reversal.
4) Based on the higher degree wave analysis, we are still expecting a 5th wave lower. This gives us the confluence to look for a short opportunity on the lower degree .
Looking into next week economic calendar, we do have some tier 1 US data - the Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. These risk events might present us a catalyst to move the dollar next week.