The Time Cycles of the Stock Market Highs are a Fibonacci Ratio
The three most important highs in recent history, corresponding to the crashes of 2000, 2007 and 2020, are in the ratio known as the Golden Section (0.618).
The time interval between the 2000 and 2007 highs was on average 2791 days: the 2000 Dow highs were on January 14, the S&P500 highs were on March 24, while the 2007 highs in both indices were on October 11, so the cycle on the DOW was 2826 days and on the S&P500 was 2756 days, for an average of 2791 days.
The Fibonacci time extension of this cycle to the next high is 2791*1.618=4516 days.
Counting 4516 days from the last high (as said, on October 11, 2007) we arrive at February 21, 2020.
The high before the current crash was February 19, 2020 (S&P500).
Going back in time so that the Golden Section moves from 0.618/1=0.618 to 0.382/0.618=0.618, we meet the high that preceded the 1987 crash!
The time interval between the 2000 and 2007 highs was on average 2791 days: the 2000 Dow highs were on January 14, the S&P500 highs were on March 24, while the 2007 highs in both indices were on October 11, so the cycle on the DOW was 2826 days and on the S&P500 was 2756 days, for an average of 2791 days.
The Fibonacci time extension of this cycle to the next high is 2791*1.618=4516 days.
Counting 4516 days from the last high (as said, on October 11, 2007) we arrive at February 21, 2020.
The high before the current crash was February 19, 2020 (S&P500).
Going back in time so that the Golden Section moves from 0.618/1=0.618 to 0.382/0.618=0.618, we meet the high that preceded the 1987 crash!
Comentarios:
There is a year that meets with the same ratio the highs of 1929, 1973 and 2000: it is the 2043.
Comentarios:
And the same relationship is true for the highs in constant dollars (1911), inflation adjusted: