a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good evening and i hope you are well.
Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all.
dax
Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800.
bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case.
bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin.
short term: sideways to up
medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same
Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all.
dax
Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800.
bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case.
bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin.
short term: sideways to up
medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs
trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same