SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update XII
In a rather surprising, and significant turn of events, when revisiting the daily counts (which are grossly under reported as many are asked to stay home with primarily ART testing; only PCR positives are logged) there appears to be another kink in the trajectory.
Earlier, the model projected a tapering of the numbers. This was also modelled in line with the experience of Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India. Two factors seemed to have not so relevant... the population density in built up areas in Singapore is much higher than any of these countries. Also, the measures imposed are rather different. And these two might be the crux of the kink, dragging along a sub wave, which in my humble opinion is probably a lot steeper, but appears less aggressive on the MACD histogram. Taking these into consideration, the model is projecting a longer run, with a less steeply rising histogrm. This would easily push the tapering off into December, if at all, else into 2022.
Stay safe people... do decide to do what you think is necessary. Take very good care of yourself and especially of your family.
Do take time to check into an earlier post at the end of June 2021... something was clearly indicated, and showed its face about a month later. Meanwhile, at that time, measures were relaxed and people got optimistic, perhaps a tad too early.
Clearly, the model works, and this is yet again telling us something.
We are still behind the curve.
Earlier, the model projected a tapering of the numbers. This was also modelled in line with the experience of Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India. Two factors seemed to have not so relevant... the population density in built up areas in Singapore is much higher than any of these countries. Also, the measures imposed are rather different. And these two might be the crux of the kink, dragging along a sub wave, which in my humble opinion is probably a lot steeper, but appears less aggressive on the MACD histogram. Taking these into consideration, the model is projecting a longer run, with a less steeply rising histogrm. This would easily push the tapering off into December, if at all, else into 2022.
Stay safe people... do decide to do what you think is necessary. Take very good care of yourself and especially of your family.
Do take time to check into an earlier post at the end of June 2021... something was clearly indicated, and showed its face about a month later. Meanwhile, at that time, measures were relaxed and people got optimistic, perhaps a tad too early.
Clearly, the model works, and this is yet again telling us something.
We are still behind the curve.
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