SoT May Chartoff Week 2: CHK:NYSE

Actualizado

Hey everyone, welcome back to my justification to myself on why I do this. Last week we failed out, I took position too early and forced a trade. This time, I'm forcing something to happen by bookending this trade with a big ol event called quarterly earnings.

Last time CHK posted earnings they gapped up 10%. We're looking for a repeat.

I'll stop myself out of this trade at $2.71 (a level I believe to be a bottom), and the upper price target is open ended, but I will take profit should we reach +15%.

I'm opening this position in premarket. $2.85 is my first entry

Nota

FA:
CHK has been getting absolutely shafted in recent years. From a high of nearly 70 dollars in 2008 to trading in the 2-4 dollar range since, it's seen it's ups and downs. However, they're still trucking along and even managed to surprise analysts with their last earnings report, from an analyst estimate of 0.16 eps to 0.5+. This caused CHK to gap up 10% the next day.

Nota

TA:
Our weekly uptrend in pink was only recently formed with a dump on may 2nd. While I'm a little leery of it's strength, the weekly downtrend doesn't seem much stronger, with both having been tested already. The weekly downtrend is also incredibly steep on longer time frames, and I do NOT expect it to hold up to the pressure from earnings.

Since we recently wicked a daily level, we are now trading in a zone between the daily levels of 2.81 and 2.87. That's quite tight, and I wouldn't be surprised if CHK traded within this range all day today (Tuesday). A break of this range will signal an imminent move.

The most important level for CHK to hold is the 2.81, however holding the valley at 2.87 inspires a lot of confidence in continuing this trade.

Nota

Targets:
I'm very specifically leaving my targets as open ended as possible, in order to give myself the freedom to properly manage this position. After market close, I'll be setting a stop loss within 2% of close price in order to protect against a total economic meltdown from CHK.

I will not set a take profit and will instead force myself to close this trade tomorrow (Wednesday) barring any ridiculous movement upwards.

Operación activa

So I already missed the drop to the 2.81 level. I was debating setting 2.81 as my entry but decided against it earlier due to not being able to decipher the premarket of Tuesday. I didn't want to miss the boat so I got a little trigger happy, but at least it was (hopefully) only a 5 cent miss

Operación activa

2.78 and I'm starting to sweat

Nota

Looking for a bounce off the second of two daily trends stemming from a double top

Operación activa

T-10hours till they drop the goods. Closed the day at 2.78, so a missed entry but we'll see if it pays off. I'll be forgoing a stop loss tonight, I have faith

Operación activa

I woke up early today to catch earnings. They missed them pretty good. 2.60 is the price, that's 10% down from the entry. Were I actually trading this thing, I would be gearing up to find the bottom today and trying to salvage my position with a bounce play. However, on this chart I'm going to be looking for a better place to exit

Operación activa

officially green on the trade. I was telling my father earlier this morning that the dump premarket has a higher probability than you'd think to catalyse a move up on the day. And lo and behold

Nota

Fight over the level I ID'd at 2.81. I bet the bulls win

Nota

Now that we're back trading within my expected range, with some serious bull momentum, I want to highlight the level and trend accuracy with the 15m chart. Nothings been changed, other than some white lines where price was acted upon by a trend or level I established 2 days ago

Nota

I'm seeing price drop towards end of day, but that's day traders closing positions. After hours movement will be a better indicator of tomorrow's direction

Nota

I won't be closing this trade today

Operación cerrada manualmente

I never closed this trade, I was very caught up in developing my options strategy and I just never found the time to come back to this.

Shleviticus

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