Bitcoin On-Chain: Is The Cycle Over Already?

11 jun

In this analysis I want to discuss a (most likely) unpopular view on the market. Namely, that the "cycle" is already over and that the peak is in for now.

Preface
This is not my most likely outcome for the markets. You can find my most likely outcome below:

Still, it's always advised to keep an open mind and explore different potential outcomes.

Overview
When we look at the last 7-8 years of Bitcoin's newly created addresses we can see that this value follows a clear boom-and-bust pattern. It peaks (green) during mania when everyone wants to step into the market and it declines after the market has topped (red).

For the people who are wondering about the November 2021 peak: on-chain data peaked in Q1-2021.

What this chart suggests is that the "mania" phase of the market cycle is over and that the top is either in or very close. Once the mania phase is over, crazy gains are more rare and trading is more difficult.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this idea. Like I said, it's not my most likely outcome, but it's possible that we've topped after the ETF mania.