BTC IN UP MOVEMENT + TRADE PLAN

4 nov

Trend Identification:

Descending Channel: Bitcoin is currently in a descending parallel channel after an uptrend, indicating a potential bullish continuation if it breaks out of this channel.
Previous Uptrend: The price came from an uptrend, and descending channels often serve as continuation patterns, suggesting a higher probability of an upward breakout.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

Support Levels:
$68,556.87: Major support near the recent low in the channel.
$66,333.98: Secondary support zone that could act as a cushion in case of a downside move.
$64,591.15: Historical support level providing a safety net if the price dips further.
Resistance Levels:
$72,198.87: Immediate resistance that BTC needs to overcome for a continued uptrend.
$73,655.67: Key resistance area that, if broken, could trigger a strong bullish move.

Indicators Analysis:

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is close to the midpoint, indicating a neutral zone. However, an upward movement in RSI could signal increasing bullish momentum.
Stochastic RSI: Currently near the overbought zone. It indicates potential upward pressure, but caution is needed as it may signal short-term exhaustion.
Volume: Noticeable increase in volume around the support levels, indicating buying interest. Volume confirmation on breakout above the resistance line would strengthen the bullish case.

Moving Averages:

HMA (Hull Moving Average): Showing a slight upward trend, aligning with the potential breakout from the descending channel.

Trading Plan

Entry Strategy:

Aggressive Entry: Enter a long position upon the breakout of the descending channel, ideally with a confirmed volume increase above $72,198.87. This would signal a possible continuation of the previous uptrend.

Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout and retest of the $72,198.87 level. If the price holds above this level after retesting, it indicates stronger bullish confirmation.

Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss slightly below $68,556.87 to limit downside risk. This area aligns with recent support, and a drop below it may indicate invalidation of the breakout pattern.

Take Profit Levels:

Primary Target: $73,655.67 (first resistance level). Partial profits can be taken here to lock in gains.

Secondary Target: $76,000, if Bitcoin gains strong momentum after breaking through the primary target. This level could be achieved in a continued bullish scenario.

Final Target: $80,000 as a psychological target, if there is sustained bullish momentum and no major resistance above.

Risk Management:

Position Size: Limit the position size to manage risk exposure, especially with the potential volatility in cryptocurrency markets.

Trailing Stop: Consider using a trailing stop after reaching the first target to lock in profits while allowing for potential upside.

Monitoring Indicators:

Volume: Continuously monitor the volume as the price approaches resistance zones. Higher-than-average volume would support the breakout, whereas weak volume could lead to a false breakout.

RSI and Stochastic: Keep an eye on these momentum indicators. If the RSI and Stochastic enter overbought territory and start to diverge, it could signal a potential reversal.

Timeframe:

This setup appears on a 4-hour chart, suggesting a medium-term trading perspective. Reassess positions if the breakout fails to materialize within the next few days.