Why BTC is going down ?
It's evident the sharp decrease of the pair BTCUSDT. i passed the last week identifying the main reason for this new bearish movement. Is it a drawdown or a change in trend ?
By simply analysing the trend last 2-moths action, we can identify the a range, between 60.6k and 72.6K. The upper level correspond to the historical HH. The lower bound is a POI and Point of liquidity and a previous resistance, which indicate a heat point for our analysis, double confirmed by the btc liquidation heatmap.
The price is still in range and side trending. But the last week shows a new scenario. The uptrend line was broken on June 17th. But was it a fakeout or a sign for a future trend change ?
Following our strategy, I came up with the following results:
1. Inefficiency at $63.343 was a liquidity recovery of the sharp bullish candles on May 15th. So we did not remove the fake out option but, the recover of this bearish reached just the intersection between the main uptrend line and the drawdown downtrend line. This not a sign strong enough to recover the hypothetical fake out, even more, is a signal for a next break out.
In fact the price dropped
2. The following decrease, from 63.300 to is 60.800 is the recover of POI. The 61k has been seen as a psychological point of interest in the past months, especially after the halving.
Right now the situation is this : we have a breakout of the uptrend line. The price wants to consolidate and recover. My last bullish targets are still the same as pre-halving analysis but, the willingness from the sellers and buyers to drop the price is evident, even for the volumetric analysis.
So, the missing points now are :
- Range between 56k and 52k motivated by : recover of liquidity and inefficiency left from the sharp bullish trend on February 20-29th, last fibonacci targets for the bearish trend and 51k is a particular heated price in the liquidation heat map. All these lead me to think in a possibly price came-back in-between this range.
- If we follow the consolidation theory ofBTC price, i considered to more last point where the price will reach before start the huge bullish, because we are still in bullish. The first around 41k, for range and inefficiency left at the beginning of this year, and a POI, very high movement zone, carried from 2021's bullish. The second zone is my last one at 34k, after that i just have another one which i labelled as "if reach here it is default".
This zone was highlighted for two main reasons which are more logical and rational than economical. 34k is a psychological point and highly heated. According to the liquidation map, several transaction are on that level, which indicate a future willingness for the users to drawn the price till there, but we will need economical motivation to see a real drawdown till that point.
In conclusion, the price will drop, following my strategy, at least to recover and satisfy the 52k range. The next week movements are essential to understand when this could happen. If the range will be broken, it will be a BOS and the price can reach that level with-in one month or less. If the price recover, it will indicate the fake out and recover of left behind points, as 1 and 2, and could go reach the first TP over 80k and, after this, drawdown.
Its more likely the first scenario.
Stay update !
By simply analysing the trend last 2-moths action, we can identify the a range, between 60.6k and 72.6K. The upper level correspond to the historical HH. The lower bound is a POI and Point of liquidity and a previous resistance, which indicate a heat point for our analysis, double confirmed by the btc liquidation heatmap.
The price is still in range and side trending. But the last week shows a new scenario. The uptrend line was broken on June 17th. But was it a fakeout or a sign for a future trend change ?
Following our strategy, I came up with the following results:
1. Inefficiency at $63.343 was a liquidity recovery of the sharp bullish candles on May 15th. So we did not remove the fake out option but, the recover of this bearish reached just the intersection between the main uptrend line and the drawdown downtrend line. This not a sign strong enough to recover the hypothetical fake out, even more, is a signal for a next break out.
In fact the price dropped
2. The following decrease, from 63.300 to is 60.800 is the recover of POI. The 61k has been seen as a psychological point of interest in the past months, especially after the halving.
Right now the situation is this : we have a breakout of the uptrend line. The price wants to consolidate and recover. My last bullish targets are still the same as pre-halving analysis but, the willingness from the sellers and buyers to drop the price is evident, even for the volumetric analysis.
So, the missing points now are :
- Range between 56k and 52k motivated by : recover of liquidity and inefficiency left from the sharp bullish trend on February 20-29th, last fibonacci targets for the bearish trend and 51k is a particular heated price in the liquidation heat map. All these lead me to think in a possibly price came-back in-between this range.
- If we follow the consolidation theory ofBTC price, i considered to more last point where the price will reach before start the huge bullish, because we are still in bullish. The first around 41k, for range and inefficiency left at the beginning of this year, and a POI, very high movement zone, carried from 2021's bullish. The second zone is my last one at 34k, after that i just have another one which i labelled as "if reach here it is default".
This zone was highlighted for two main reasons which are more logical and rational than economical. 34k is a psychological point and highly heated. According to the liquidation map, several transaction are on that level, which indicate a future willingness for the users to drawn the price till there, but we will need economical motivation to see a real drawdown till that point.
In conclusion, the price will drop, following my strategy, at least to recover and satisfy the 52k range. The next week movements are essential to understand when this could happen. If the range will be broken, it will be a BOS and the price can reach that level with-in one month or less. If the price recover, it will indicate the fake out and recover of left behind points, as 1 and 2, and could go reach the first TP over 80k and, after this, drawdown.
Its more likely the first scenario.
Stay update !
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