BTC Update! My thoughts on Fidelity BTC trading opening!
Yesterdays chart we were watching to see if BTC was going to consolidate or if it was just a daily bull flag. Consolidation I questioned because the 4 hour chart was still holding its lows in tact making me hesitant to believe the daily chart would begin consolidation over it just being a bull flag to continuation.
We got confirmation last night on the bull flag and ran pretty much right into the start of my resistance zone I highlighted a couple weeks ago. I would personally expect us to struggle here for several weeks under normal conditions or just reject hard from resistance zone. But, this is crypto and things aren't exactly normal.
So besides technical analysis, you must keep up with fundamentals, news/media, FUD/FOMO news, etc.
So Fidelity announced yesterday or the day before it would be offering BTC trading "in a few weeks" I believe is how they worded it.
So I've been thinking of how the market is most likely to react to this information as the actual trading opens in a few weeks.
Key points to this - Fidelity is opening this trading to institutional/pro investors, NOT retail investors. We will eventually have a KNOWN date to when this trading will begin.
Personal thoughts on this: BE READY. I believe this could take one of two different turns here. One bullish for those loving crypto and one bearish but I do believe both will be fairly easy to see which one is likely to occur.
For those newer to the space (Jan 2018 or later) - please read up on the 2017 bull run if you have not already. For those of us who have been in the space for a few years now already know exactly how crazy this market can be.
So lets start with 2 years ago. May 2017. We were around $1500 BTC price. We saw a huge run up between May 2017 and December 2017 to nearly 20k. And then the crash started and continued for all of 2018. But what interests me if in 2017 when Futures Trading was announced as coming soon. CME/CBOE were both looking to open futures trading. This sent the bulls into a frenzy. Media really picked up their coverage. FOMO set in. Everyone starts drinking the BTC KoolAid. We ran up to 20k from 6k in a matter of 5 weeks! And then Futures opened and we immediately dumped 40%+. And then start the strong and steady trend down to $3100 over the course of 2018.
Starting to see any correlations? Is this Fidelity news going to startup the frenzy again and get people back on the BTC train? Will we repeat the same process and over "a few weeks" as we wait for Fidelity to open see a run from about 6k to 20k only to then see Wall Street short it like crazy when it hits Fidelity platform? I don't believe we will see that type of pump but do believe we could see a strong push upwards, 8k? 10k? Perhaps. And if we do over the next few weeks start seeing increasing media hype and attention, Fidelity pumping their news on trading opening, get the known date for it to start, etc. then I'd personally be looking to ride the wave up and be sure to exit a day or two prior to Fidelity trading opening with anticipation that the institutions are not going to be buyers to go long if BTC price has run wild in the weeks leading up to their known date but rather that they'd seek to short the asset.
Flip side of this: does BTC price just reject here in the 6k range and start dumping over the new "few weeks" because Wall Street legitimately DOES want in on the asset to be long positions. But they of course want to buy as cheaply as possible before the long their position. Remember, this is ONLY going to be open to institutions/pros for Fidelity initially. So if I were an institution wanting to long a position, you get price to come down leading up to your known event and then you buy it up and create the FOMO/hype to get the ball rolling in the bullish direction again. In this scenario, institutions can be long, start driving the price UP and then announce they will open BTC trading to its retail investors "in a few weeks"... create further hype/FOMO/KoolAid drinking and really pump the price as retail investors get excited they can buy and sell BTC on Fidelity. At that point those institutions who are long are making killer profits and perhaps then they short once retail investors are allowed in and they crush the retail investors and institution make their money both directions.
Sorry for the long take but that is how I am personally preparing. Does it have to happen exactly or even close to either of those scenarios? Of course not. But I always seek to have a plan in place. Lay it out and then watch to see how the pieces begin to fall into place. Could BTC just dance around sideways and not go up or down much leading up to Fidelity opening in a few weeks for institutions? Certainly. I just personally am preparing for more volatile situations.
Personal trades - as noted in yesterdays chart I was back to all cash. I then noted in comments of yesterdays chart shortly after that I had begun to scale into LTC and NEO for my next trades. I remain in these positions just slightly above average entry and will be watching 4 hour higher lows to utilize as stops. If we see a nice push upward, I will scale out of portions of my positions just to lock up profits and lower my break even point for remainder of position.
Just My 2 Sats!
We got confirmation last night on the bull flag and ran pretty much right into the start of my resistance zone I highlighted a couple weeks ago. I would personally expect us to struggle here for several weeks under normal conditions or just reject hard from resistance zone. But, this is crypto and things aren't exactly normal.
So besides technical analysis, you must keep up with fundamentals, news/media, FUD/FOMO news, etc.
So Fidelity announced yesterday or the day before it would be offering BTC trading "in a few weeks" I believe is how they worded it.
So I've been thinking of how the market is most likely to react to this information as the actual trading opens in a few weeks.
Key points to this - Fidelity is opening this trading to institutional/pro investors, NOT retail investors. We will eventually have a KNOWN date to when this trading will begin.
Personal thoughts on this: BE READY. I believe this could take one of two different turns here. One bullish for those loving crypto and one bearish but I do believe both will be fairly easy to see which one is likely to occur.
For those newer to the space (Jan 2018 or later) - please read up on the 2017 bull run if you have not already. For those of us who have been in the space for a few years now already know exactly how crazy this market can be.
So lets start with 2 years ago. May 2017. We were around $1500 BTC price. We saw a huge run up between May 2017 and December 2017 to nearly 20k. And then the crash started and continued for all of 2018. But what interests me if in 2017 when Futures Trading was announced as coming soon. CME/CBOE were both looking to open futures trading. This sent the bulls into a frenzy. Media really picked up their coverage. FOMO set in. Everyone starts drinking the BTC KoolAid. We ran up to 20k from 6k in a matter of 5 weeks! And then Futures opened and we immediately dumped 40%+. And then start the strong and steady trend down to $3100 over the course of 2018.
Starting to see any correlations? Is this Fidelity news going to startup the frenzy again and get people back on the BTC train? Will we repeat the same process and over "a few weeks" as we wait for Fidelity to open see a run from about 6k to 20k only to then see Wall Street short it like crazy when it hits Fidelity platform? I don't believe we will see that type of pump but do believe we could see a strong push upwards, 8k? 10k? Perhaps. And if we do over the next few weeks start seeing increasing media hype and attention, Fidelity pumping their news on trading opening, get the known date for it to start, etc. then I'd personally be looking to ride the wave up and be sure to exit a day or two prior to Fidelity trading opening with anticipation that the institutions are not going to be buyers to go long if BTC price has run wild in the weeks leading up to their known date but rather that they'd seek to short the asset.
Flip side of this: does BTC price just reject here in the 6k range and start dumping over the new "few weeks" because Wall Street legitimately DOES want in on the asset to be long positions. But they of course want to buy as cheaply as possible before the long their position. Remember, this is ONLY going to be open to institutions/pros for Fidelity initially. So if I were an institution wanting to long a position, you get price to come down leading up to your known event and then you buy it up and create the FOMO/hype to get the ball rolling in the bullish direction again. In this scenario, institutions can be long, start driving the price UP and then announce they will open BTC trading to its retail investors "in a few weeks"... create further hype/FOMO/KoolAid drinking and really pump the price as retail investors get excited they can buy and sell BTC on Fidelity. At that point those institutions who are long are making killer profits and perhaps then they short once retail investors are allowed in and they crush the retail investors and institution make their money both directions.
Sorry for the long take but that is how I am personally preparing. Does it have to happen exactly or even close to either of those scenarios? Of course not. But I always seek to have a plan in place. Lay it out and then watch to see how the pieces begin to fall into place. Could BTC just dance around sideways and not go up or down much leading up to Fidelity opening in a few weeks for institutions? Certainly. I just personally am preparing for more volatile situations.
Personal trades - as noted in yesterdays chart I was back to all cash. I then noted in comments of yesterdays chart shortly after that I had begun to scale into LTC and NEO for my next trades. I remain in these positions just slightly above average entry and will be watching 4 hour higher lows to utilize as stops. If we see a nice push upward, I will scale out of portions of my positions just to lock up profits and lower my break even point for remainder of position.
Just My 2 Sats!
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