BTCUSD: Bearish Momentum Into Bullish Price Zone?

9 mar 2018

BTCUSD update: New low made at 8342 which has taken price through the 9280 support and the 8659 reversal zone boundary as bearish momentum persists. Now that the market has made a decisive move, and compromised important levels, it is now reasonable to consider the possibilities of a range bound environment.

As I wrote in previous reports, in order to go long, the market must prove itself. Although it showed some temporary signals of strength, like hesitant price action, potential reversal bars, etc, the proof to go long never materialized. What matters most is how a candle closes and I pointed this out specifically in my previous report. And on this time frame, which carries a lot of weight, the closes have been bearish.

With that being said, the lower price goes, the more attractive it becomes to buy. Even though it went below the 8659 extreme support boundary, it is attempting to retrace. Also just below that is the 8174 to 4983 major support zone which is relative to the .618 of the entire bullish structure of this market. Even if price pushes into this zone, I will be looking to add to my long position.

Keep in mind, this market has now established a lower low relative to the 9208 low, but has plenty of support and room to reverse which makes this market more susceptible to gyrating within a broader range. Especially now that price is overlapping the Wave i territory. The other level to monitor is the 9616 trend resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing) which will continue to adjust lower until the market establishes a low. Once price closes above this level, often that is a confirmation that the next bullish leg is in progress, otherwise bearish momentum is in play.

In summary, do not over react and do not get sucked into the internet hype machine that looks to capitalize on out of comfort zone moves like this. Instead, put it into perspective and recognize what is ahead, and what needs to happen in order for an attractive buying opportunity to materialize. Buying fundamentally strong markets during times of weakness is a best practice, but you do not just buy because the market is pushing a low. You wait for a reversal at a high probability level. Price is hovering at such a level, and has an even more attractive area just below. Let the market prove itself, or stay out of its way. I do not short these markets, but if I could, I certainly would NOT be looking to get short now, especially near the reversal zone boundary. I am still holding my position trade long, and waiting patiently to add as more attractive prices become available.

Questions and comments welcome.