2018-6-3 BTC SHORT (short term) rising wedge

3 jun 2018

BTC price is currently inside a rising wedge (which is a bearish pattern) near it's resistence. BTC is in a 4 days sequence of rise, the volume have been too low.
The SAR of 1h chart is bearish, the 4h chart is nearing the bullish SAR (which may lead to a trend reversion), MACD is showing bearish hidden divergence. And at last, but not least,
today BTC have failed to stabilish new highs on te 1h chart. I think during this night we may see some downward moves from BTC.
The target for the rising wedge should be at ~$7200, but I placed my exit at ~$7450, which is a good profit and is near a possible support (if BTC forms an broadening wedge).
The stop-loss will be set above the sar.

• Stop-loss: $ 7759
  
• Entry: $ 7721.4
  
• Profit: $ 7422
  

Money management

• Volume: 4% of main capital
  
• Risk: 0.49 %
  
• Reward: 3.88 %
  

3 jun 2018

Operación activa

I forgot to mention that BTC is currently in a symmetrical triangle, which may have a breakout up or down.

4 jun 2018

Nota

I got stopped at $ 7759

4 jun 2018

Nota

At the black arrow, we can see that the price went up until the SAR and then went down again, returning to the symmetrical triangle. I decided to reopen to position because I still believe in it, I managed to reopen it at $ 7,706, which is not too far from my previous openning. This time I set a looser stop, above that high that stopped me.

4 jun 2018

Nota

New setup (still a really solid risk/reward)

• Stop-loss: $ 7790
  
• Entry: $ 7706
  
• Profit: $ 7440
  

Money management

• Volume: 4% of main capital
  
• Risk: 1.05 %
  
• Reward: 3.45 %
  

4 jun 2018

Nota

Let's zoom out a little and take a look at this setup in a bigger timeframe:

Do you see how perfectly that possible broadening wedge support allign with previous downtrend resistance (now support)? This is another reason that makes me choose a target smaller than the possible target for that big rising wedge. Bitcoin is currently near to my target and whales are fighting furiously at the order book. Let's see who is going to win this time! I'm still with the bears

4 jun 2018

Nota

Now, Let's zoom in a little to predict if our target is still reachable:

At this 15 min chart, we can see that there is a bearish hidden divergence being formed.
This is a continuation pattern that shows that is more likely that the price will keep going down.
I'm still optimistic about this target. Let's keep looking!

4 jun 2018

Nota

I changed my stop to $ 7512, above last top (of 15 m chart). If BTC fail getting new lows, I'll be out with my profit in the pocket.

4 jun 2018

Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado

stop-gain reached! position closed.