Well, still waiting for the bottom.
Today's breakdown looks like we are tracking to the original idea from December based on a review of historical market tops. A few idea tweaks have taken place over the past few months to consider possible trajectory but ultimately Target remains $20k area.
The scenario was based on Weekly MA50 interaction. Market Top interaction with the 50 weekly MA has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Bounce on top of 50 WMA
2. Bounce up into 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
We are now at point 3 following a classic 'double tap' of the resistance.
- Expect a move down to $20k region
- points to a prolonged bear market
- ALTs.. plenty of folk warned others about the risk there
I'll note some positive signals in recent days and there are still scenarios that support various Flat Correction scenarios I outlined a few months ago - leaning towards an Expanded Flat Correction. If markets calm and DXY backs off from resistance there may be a rally in a week or so but ultimately I do not expect a reversal and target to be reached.
Best, Hard Forky
Today's breakdown looks like we are tracking to the original idea from December based on a review of historical market tops. A few idea tweaks have taken place over the past few months to consider possible trajectory but ultimately Target remains $20k area.
The scenario was based on Weekly MA50 interaction. Market Top interaction with the 50 weekly MA has typically been in 3 parts:
1. Bounce on top of 50 WMA
2. Bounce up into 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA
We are now at point 3 following a classic 'double tap' of the resistance.
- Expect a move down to $20k region
- points to a prolonged bear market
- ALTs.. plenty of folk warned others about the risk there
I'll note some positive signals in recent days and there are still scenarios that support various Flat Correction scenarios I outlined a few months ago - leaning towards an Expanded Flat Correction. If markets calm and DXY backs off from resistance there may be a rally in a week or so but ultimately I do not expect a reversal and target to be reached.
Best, Hard Forky
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market taking a battering but the end is in sight
