Bitcoin: Tough Triangle But Favors Bullish Breakout.

1 jun 2020

The Bitcoin consolidation between 9564 to 10168 resistance zone and the 8500 area support is still in play. As I have been mentioning in previous videos, this pattern is typically a trend continuation pattern, and the bullish trend is STILL intact. In this video I will highlight the context behind the setup we would like to see in order to share a new swing trade long idea.

Putting on a trade, at least for us, has more to do with the probability of the location and the reward/risk vs. just taking a trade to "make money". If a setup is of low quality (context is out of line) or reward/risk is unattractive, we would rather stand aside and possibly miss a move. In the case of Bitcoin now, it is gyrating in a consolidation which can produce many false or low quality signals before it breaks out. Since the 7695 support is still intact, the broader trend is defined as BULLISH based on the rules of our LONG only swing trade strategy. With this guide in place, it is reasonable to anticipate a BULLISH breakout, (like the recent breakout in Gold) but there is no way to know when this breakout will occur AND follow through.

Triangles (from the Elliott Wave perspective) will often develop 5 legs before breaking and Bitcoin at the moment has developed only 4. That concept can provide some timing benefit in terms of expectations. More importantly, WAITING for a setup in the best location is key. Right now that would be near the 8500 support area or range low, followed by a pin bar or inside bar. It is not a matter of when this setup with the best reward/risk appears, it is all about IF the market offers the opportunity. What if it breaks out without offering such an entry? Then we miss it and wait for the next signal. Consistent performance does not come from chasing trade signals, it comes from WAITING for QUALITY setups as defined by reward/risk and probability.