Where will bitcoin go -- and is someone fear-mongering

8 ene 2021

Bitcoin doubled in more than 20 days and is now trading in thousand-dollar amplitudes. All the short sellers were blown up. Will Bitcoin really go to the sky? More and more Morgan is predicting bitcoin will hit $140,000 in a short time, while more say institutions are now buying bitcoin as an asset allocation.

In this climate of public opinion, people started to panic that they might not be able to buy cheap bitcoin again, so more and more people started to join the long party.

In fact, logically speaking, a reasonable trend should be that in the process of rising, there should be constant adjustment to balance the long and short, because only by fully changing hands can the market trend be more healthy. But there is no adjustment of the trend, means that some people earn very much, and outside the people will not dare to enter, there is no pick up plate man, the market will crash sooner or later. So now we wait for adjustment is a reasonable state of mind.

Greed and fear are our greatest enemies and are attributes that will accompany us throughout our lives. But the wonderful thing about nature is that it does not obey man's will, but has its own rules. In this world, only up do not fall things seem to be few, time is a, our age only up do not fall. As for trading, because it is the opponent plate, never only up not down time. In bad times, gold was not worth as much as rice. But the world will be quiet, dust to dust to dust. As long as there is speculation, some people will win and some will lose.

Now you see buying regardless of cost, but in the future you will also see selling regardless of cost. What is an institution? They are middlemen who help investors run their businesses, using their so-called expertise to make bigger profits. They earn a commission. But they are also human beings, and as long as they are human beings, they cannot get rid of greed and fear. It has nothing to do with professionalism or knowledge.

Recently, similar panic has occurred in A-shares. Hundreds of stocks have gone up and thousands of stocks have gone down. Everyone has sold the stocks that can't go up and chased the so-called bull stocks. Because people believe that if they don't buy now, they won't be able to buy in the future.

All of this is driven by profit, we want to make more money, fear of losing money, the cycle of greed and fear that makes this market exist.

But everything has a degree, when the market is extremely greedy, when you buy to make money, you should think about the rules of financial investment: 1 earn, 2 even, 7 losses. If you believe this, you should know what to do.

For the current trend, whether the forecast has peaked or will rise to 140,000, in fact, is not a trading strategy, but a judgment on the future trend. Analysis is a prediction, an estimate of what will happen in the future, based on past experience. No prediction is 100% accurate, otherwise it is not a prediction. But as I have said before, the standard of a good analyst is not the success rate, but whether he has his own independent point of view, whether he is objective and impartial, whether he has a complete trading strategy.

As far as trading is concerned, should be a standard. In past articles, I have been recommending the right side, but in a one-sided market, you can see the importance of the right side. The people who see those bursting positions are basically left-hand trading standards.

As to what criteria you use, different people will have different opinions.

If you think it's going to go up to $140,000, would you sell at $140,000? What if it goes up to 50,000 and then starts to go down? It's just like in 2017, when everyone thought that Bitcoin would rise to 100,000 or 500,000, but it stopped at 20,000 dollars and fell for two years. How many people who bought at 20,000 dollars did not sell? What's more, some people are financing to buy, but there is no chance to wait until today to make money.

In 2015, the same story had been played out in A-share market. Many people were eager to enter the market after seeing Xinhua News Agency saying that 4000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index was just the beginning of the bull market. At that time, over-the-counter investment allocation was just emerging, and many people borrowed money to invest in stocks. At the beginning, they made a lot of money and became more courageous. Many people made tens of millions of dollars, hoping to fight this battle, solve the financial freedom, put their lives on the stake, and gamble at 5000 points. In the end, it's all in vain.

So if history is a guide, speculation often ends in tragedy, and the prudent approach. It's a technical escort. Trading on the right helps you keep your risk within limits.

For ardent believers, it may be a mistake to sell at any time. But for most people, they're not believers, they just want to make money. So it's important to have your own trading standards.