9/24 Markets on Edge: Is the Bull Run Here to Stay?

25 sept

Overview:
It might seem like the markets have been rallying for the last four trading days, following the recent interest rate cut. The SPY formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern on Friday and Monday, followed by another green candle on Tuesday. We remain in a bullish trend with no clear signs of reversal. However, it's worth noting that we still haven’t reached a new all-time high and haven't posted a solid green candle engulfing previous ones. The SPY hasn’t even surpassed the highest trading price recorded last Thursday. Essentially, we're hovering at the market's peak, deciding whether to kick off a new bull cycle or face a potential downturn.

QQQ also closed positively, but the candlestick pattern is similar to SPY. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve reported the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing price increases in 20 major U.S. cities. While housing is still appreciating, it’s doing so at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. In July, it rose by 5.9% year-over-year, compared to an expected 6% and the previous reading of 6.5%. The primary driver of home prices is borrowing costs, particularly reflected in mortgage rates. Typically, a 1% increase or decrease in mortgage rates correlates with a 10% change in property values. As interest rates decrease, so do mortgage rates, influencing home prices.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped from 7.22% in May to 6% in mid-September, translating to a 12.2% increase in housing prices. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index could see a significant rise, especially if the Fed cuts rates twice more by year-end.

The Consumer Confidence Index, distinct from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also dropped to 98.7 in September, nearing the bottom of its narrow range over the past two years. This is the steepest decline since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating. Consumers’ views on current business conditions and the labor market have turned negative. Additionally, expectations for future labor market conditions, business conditions, and income have all worsened. While this drop is significant, it’s not as severe as during the Dotcom Bubble or the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

Fidelity and Bitwise are slowly dipping their toes into the BTC ETF market, while Grayscale and BlackRock remain on the sidelines. The ETH ETF remains untouched. It’s possible that the recent surge in buying is driven by retail investors. We might need to reconsider the importance of ETF metrics, as they’ve become just another market participant without any apparent insider knowledge. For instance, BlackRock made its largest BTC ETF purchase between February 27th and March 14th when BTC's price ranged from 51K to 73K. On March 12th, they purchased $849 million worth of BTC at a closing price of 71.4K, leaving them in a loss since then.

Weekly: This week’s BTCUSD candle is above the Bollinger Band moving average, but it’s still intersecting the $64 k weekly level. If this price holds, it could signal a major bullish trend. For now, it’s still leaning bearish.
Daily : Tuesday’s price action pushed us above the weekly $64 k level. The daily candle appears stronger compared to the previous four spinning tops. RSI is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 mark, and there are no MACD divergences.
4-Hour : The bearish MACD divergence persists, now visible in RSI as well. Three consecutive candles are holding above 64K. Lower timeframes will reveal how many attempts were made to break this level and if previous resistance has turned into support. The price is at the top of the Bollinger Bands.
1-Hour): On Tuesday, September 24th, at 10 AM, there was a decisive candle indicating an unsuccessful attempt by American bears to break the 62.9K level. The VR VP point of control is precisely at this level, with significant bullish buy orders absorbing the selling pressure. Volume nearly doubled to 1.1 million on Coinbase, compared to an average of 278k. Subsequent candles showed higher volume and a higher low. Once the selling pressure was absorbed, the price began to rise and broke the resistance level. Since the breakout, the price has tested the old resistance level three times but successfully rebounded, closing higher above the Bollinger Band moving average.
This breakout was confirmed by a CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) bullish divergence, available on TradingView. It shows the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, especially on the 1-hour timeframe. During the 10, 11, and 12 AM candles, a higher low was formed compared to the previous price low, but the CVD indicated a lower low. This suggests that even with immense selling pressure, buy orders were absorbing the sell orders, pushing the price higher.

Alts Relative to BTC:
While major market indices and BTC might appear flat and indecisive, altcoins are experiencing explosive growth. Since the rate cut, the following alts have surged:
TAO: +70% SUI: +50% APT: +37% NEAR: +30% RNDR: +30%
Alts had ample room for growth as many collapsed faster than BTC. In early September, SUI and NEAR reached their "BTC ETF approval" price levels from January 10th, while APT hit its 2023 bottom price. It still has another 9% to go before reaching its BTC ETF price.

Bull Case: BTC holds $64 k, all selling pressure is absorbed, and liquidity floods the market, especially after China joined the rate-cutting spree, reducing their rate from 2.3% to 2.0%.

Bear Case: It could all be one big bull trap, with deeper economic issues globally leaving people with less disposable income to gamble on speculative assets.

Fear and Greed Index: 52.83. Increasing but still in the neutral zone. There's a notable divergence: check the Fear and Greed Index chart on CoinMarketCap. The last two lows were on August 5th and September 6th, yet BTC posted a higher second low, indicating irrational fear in the market. Keep an eye on this divergence for future reference.