BTCUSD - Testing Support Level - Moving into Accumulation Area

20 oct 2019

BTCUSD - Daily - Testing Support Level - Moving into Accumulation Area

Bitcoin falling closer to the support level and with a lot of bearish momentum and ichimoku giving us the red bearish future cloud, anticipating movement in price downwards into the support zone as marked in blue.

+ Descending triangle (DT) keeping btc locked in the range as marked, but we are approaching the edges and are looking at going either down or through the top (unlikely). All other indicators are saying down and this is a feature of the DT.

Dont Fear

Its hard to say how far we will fall if we do, marked are the zones of support below price, but this area looks like a decent zone for accumulation.

If I had to speculate I see us moving up later in the year/early next year, this is crypto volatile and things can move fast or slow depending on adoption/news and economic markets however, one thing that many seem to forget is the affect of halving on bitcoins price just look back and see its effect on price. The excellent research of "Plan B - Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity"

IMO this will be the time to get some at a discount before the next run up, and if you think of your time preference and research the potential impact of halving (bitcoin new supply being cut every 4 years approx.) it becomes a case of scarcity and the historic trend just continues as bitcoin continues to grow. Will bitcoin be used as a hedge in the ever increasing likelihood of a recession?

Mattchimoku

* ON THE CHART - ZOOM OUT *
Not in any way trading advice, consider my personal perspective only.

21 oct 2019

Nota

21 oct 2019

Nota

We bounced off our support line back up to kijun (brown line), medium term momentum. We are sitting between short and medium term momentum lines (blue and brown lines), with a indecision doji candle, signifying indecision in the market and potential indecision with the recent pullback above 8,000 level.

Now we have made it back to our market equilibrium point on this time frame (daily chart), we can observe and watch the market make its decision.

In my perspective we are still looking bearish and likely to break below.

23 oct 2019

Nota

The market decided and the bearish momentum continues as price moved away from Kijun (brown line - long term equilibrium level) and we are looking likely to move back to our support level (dark blue line).

24 oct 2019

Nota

We broke through our support level, now we are holding the level set by the bottom of the candle (left side of photo). Lets see how this plays out.. future cloud still looking bearish

27 oct 2019

Nota

Wake up yesterday to BTC pumping up approx 34% before retracing back down. The break lower didn't hold and boy did we see a pump up and through our DT.

My first instinct when it pumped was FOMO, but I remained patient and watched BTC price movement through out the day yesterday and watched the Daily candle close this morning which was crucial.

The Daily candle that broke out of the cloud yesterday, unfortunately didn't have all rules met for a high probability breakout and as such we experienced a massive retracement.

4 Rules for a Cloud breakout (Highest Probability):

1. Price Breaks out of the Cloud and Closes Outside (Breakout but retraced and closed inside cloud - Failed)
2. Price above Kijun (yes)
3. CK Span above price level (yes)
4. Future Cloud Bullish? (No Bearish)

The Bearish future was the giveaway yesterday that the move up may have been premature.

We are now in the cloud, where price generally consolidates, however you cannot deny that there is money waiting on the sidelines and a move from here to the upside is more than possible. For now we must observe the structure of the market and watch for a twist on our cloud future indicating a change in momentum.

Mattchimoku

*Not in any way trading advice, consider my personal perspective/views only*