As a result of the ongoing fall of BTC, there is a lot of talks going on about the "real value" of BTC and the magnitude of the hype.
Here is my take on it: - before the last, normal-weekly correction (2015-01-25) highest-OBV was 2,2m. At this OBV-level the close-prices were 920USD (2013-11-25) and 2349USD (2017-05-29). - let's accept 2017-05-29 close price as a "real price": 2349 USD (at OBV 2.2m) - since 2017-06-05, OBV has grown roughly ~30%. -so superroughly 2349*1,3 = 3054. (which - by the way - corresponds quite well with middle level of Keltner 100, 1.618.) -so in my mind BTC is ~4 times overhyped and running without any weekly correction since 2015-01-02 (!).
Weakness of this line of thought: - OBV-price relation is more complex - Daily-based corrections might do for correction in such a speedy market - BTC-beleivers says that the promise is a new financial system and the value isn't the market value.
Personally: - I think it is overhyped, but will not fall as of now - The continuous hard-forks feels spooky to me (26 by now?) - Winklevoss-twins as a face of bitcoin do not correspond in me with Satoshi's or Szabo's freedom-loving geniusness, dignity and goodwill. - The way in which Winklevoss-twins-billionaires boosting the hype feels somewhat irresponsible to me (cryptos are risky, and if down the line BTC falls big, small Jennifers/Joes will lose, not them) -- they feel like "a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."
This is NOT a trading advice, but comments/criticism welcome!
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