BTCUSD [REVISED] - 30% Cyclical Short Trade? Be Conservative

Looking at the chart we can see bitcoin struggling to get above the EMA200 level on the 4HR chart and a long-term trendline (highlighted purple). With the cyclical trade to the downside (EMA50 below the EMA200) but price action seemingly bullish , this will put off many professional traders from entering a long trade at this level. Instead, we can look to short this market given a rejection at the EMA200 and a breakdown of the fibo level at $3918. In the case of a rejection, watch for bounce between $3400-3600 level. This idea become partially invalidated with price action closing a daily candle above $4260.34.

Previously we explored an idea for the falling wedge pattern and its possible break to the downside. This invalidated idea can be found here:

Long-term trajectory:

***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK

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Here's the consolidation candle...

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Still consolidating... and we are still within our trading plan. However!! We are now trading above the EMA200 on the 4HR which could offer an opportunity to the bulls to continue the Santa rally.

On the daily there's plenty of resistance above so going long is not a good idea

As for the mcap 1W we can see the same picture as the bitcoin daily

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Testing the EMAs again!

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Watch for H&S pattern... its a 50/50 chance at this point.

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Watch for EMA200 rejection on the 4HR...

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Still bearish on the daily

Back in the shorting zone on the 4HR.

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YES!!!!

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We have a megaphone pattern and price needs to snap those fibo supports to get below that daily low.

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We have a reversal formation on the daily now, so we should expect a reversal and get out of shorts until the consolidation gets us a bit higher