Crypto Bears Still in Control Until Likely ETF Approval in Sept
Actualizado
As forecasted in my most recent updates, Wave-f is ending around this time and we should be beginning wave-g now. This wave will likely end sometime during September, and will likely end around 6000-4800. The key to look for will be a completed wave-g internal structure (probably a diametric) between the two time targets (Sept 1st-22nd). This time target not only coincides with the end of wave-g, it is also the time target for the end of the larger monthly wave-(d) (in orange). Based on recent news, and a possible positive ETF decision happening around that time, it seems like more consolidation on BTC is likely until then.
At least one of the Direxion ETFs is likely to be approved on September 21st by the SEC. Direxion is a large ETF provider that has brought to market many complex ETF products, and was the very first provider to get 3x Leveraged ETF products approved by the SEC. Their team of experienced and sophisticated financial engineers is very likely to have noticed a shift in the SEC's stance towards cryptocurrency and would have likely been one of the first to present products that capitalizes on that. This highly experienced team would likely have not even proposed this ETF to the SEC had they not been extremely confident that it will get approved, which is why this is the first time they've proposed a Bitcoin ETF to the SEC.
However, it's also possible that the ETF isn't immediately approved, but still the SEC's comments on it are very positive and paint a bright future for a future ETF to pass, which will be enough to ignite a bull run on speculation alone. We will have to wait until September 21st to know for sure what their decision is going to be, but the strong coincidence with that decision and my time target for wave-g points to a positive decision happening on that date, and crypto seeing an extremely powerful bounce that will be strong enough to begin a months-long uptrend.
Also many altcoins that have not gone up as much as BTC in the last month will likely see new low prices. It's also possible that BTC briefly makes a new low, but I think it's more likely that the 5800 support will hold more or less and we'll bounce off of that in September. Regardless of how low this goes, it definitely seems like the timing for the end of this correction is perfect for September 21st, and we may be two short months away from an epic bull run that could take BTC to well over 100k, and take many other cryptocurrencies even higher in terms of percent-gains over the following 9 months.
At least one of the Direxion ETFs is likely to be approved on September 21st by the SEC. Direxion is a large ETF provider that has brought to market many complex ETF products, and was the very first provider to get 3x Leveraged ETF products approved by the SEC. Their team of experienced and sophisticated financial engineers is very likely to have noticed a shift in the SEC's stance towards cryptocurrency and would have likely been one of the first to present products that capitalizes on that. This highly experienced team would likely have not even proposed this ETF to the SEC had they not been extremely confident that it will get approved, which is why this is the first time they've proposed a Bitcoin ETF to the SEC.
However, it's also possible that the ETF isn't immediately approved, but still the SEC's comments on it are very positive and paint a bright future for a future ETF to pass, which will be enough to ignite a bull run on speculation alone. We will have to wait until September 21st to know for sure what their decision is going to be, but the strong coincidence with that decision and my time target for wave-g points to a positive decision happening on that date, and crypto seeing an extremely powerful bounce that will be strong enough to begin a months-long uptrend.
Also many altcoins that have not gone up as much as BTC in the last month will likely see new low prices. It's also possible that BTC briefly makes a new low, but I think it's more likely that the 5800 support will hold more or less and we'll bounce off of that in September. Regardless of how low this goes, it definitely seems like the timing for the end of this correction is perfect for September 21st, and we may be two short months away from an epic bull run that could take BTC to well over 100k, and take many other cryptocurrencies even higher in terms of percent-gains over the following 9 months.
Nota
Very often in my life I have seen wave analysis lead the news, and I strongly believe this is going to be one of those times. When you analyze that facts surrounding the possibility of the Direxion ETFs passing, and the statements made by the SEC such as:"For example, existing or newly created bitcoin futures markets may achieve significant size, and an ETP listing exchange may be able to demonstrate in a proposed rule change that it will be able to address the risk of fraud and manipulation by sharing surveillance information with a regulated market of significant size related to bitcoin, as well as, where appropriate, with the spot markets underlying relevant bitcoin derivatives" -SEC, July 2018
And this is from the proposed prospectus of Direxion's NYSE-endorsed ETF:
"Unlike conventional ETFs, the Fund is “actively managed” and does not seek to replicate the performance of a specified futures contract. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a combination of financial instruments that are economically linked to the CME and CBOE bitcoin futures contracts which are priced utilizing the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (“BRR”) a standardized reference rate and spot price index and the Gemini Exchange Auction price from the Gemini Exchange, respectively. The BRR utilizes information from several bitcoin exchanges and trading platforms." -Direxion Bitcoin ETF Prospectus
This means that the Direxion ETF is actually based on the CME futures, which is a regulated and surveillanced market that is resistant to manipulation and fraud (according to the SEC), and futures are based on the Bitcoin Reference Rate, which is a specially calculated rate that is designed in specific to be resistant to manipulation and fraud, and based on regulated bitcoin markets. So this literally fits perfectly into what the SEC is looking for to comply with the Exchange Act and has a very high chance of passing.
The SEC even specifically says it's possible "existing" BTC futures products could be used in a future ETF, if it can be shown to have all the above qualities, and it will be shown to have that because they do, it's just a matter of time.
Nota
I just noticed that if I use wave-(b)'s time (instead of wave-(c)'s time) and compare it to wave-(d)'s time, it suggests that wave-(d) should end exactly when the ETF decision is, and exactly when the time target for the smaller wave-g is. This is actually what I should have done originally because it's more likely for a wave to relate to a same-direction wave than for it to relate to an opposite-direction wave.
Even when I check the time targets on the daily (instead of 3D), it is even more precise in suggesting that we should end exactly on September 21st, with both the time targets for wave-(d) and wave-g overlapping on that date.
Again I strongly believe that this means that the wave analysis is leading the news and that we are going to see something positive from the SEC on September 21st. Along with the evidence from the SEC statements and the Direxion prospectus, the probability of a positive decision seems very high, as well as the probability of a final long squeeze before that decision, and then the beginning of the next 9 months long bull-run immediately after the news comes out.
Nota
It looks like we have completed wave-a of (g) on this chart. Most likely wave-(g) will form a diametric that is similar in form to the larger wave-|d|, meaning that the smaller wave-a covered >90% of the price that the whole wave-(g) diametric will consume, just like wave-(a) of |d| did, which means price-wise we could be very close to the bottom on BTC but time-wise we are going to consolidate here until we get a catalyst that will allow us to break up around September 21st.
Nota
The Turkish New Lira has been experiencing an episode of hyperinflation in the last month. This is caused, in part, by tariffs imposed by President Trump as part of the on-going global trade war. Normally, in times of economic crisis like what Turkey is experiencing now, the US has moved to help countries get out of the crisis situation.
This is a major departure from previous administration's policies, and will likely be repeated in other countries, leading to those countries national currencies seeing severe episodes of inflation. Because crypto is seen as a global store of value, and an alternative to national currencies, it's very likely the trade war is going to lead to many people using crypto as a safe-haven to store their value and transact with, while their national currencies crumble.
Also if you look at the BTCTRY chart you can see that this is already beginning to happen in Turkey:
Nota
As @renkcub pointed out, there is actually another ETF decision coming out on August 23rd. This is the final decision to approve or deny the Proshares Bitcoin Futures ETF, and its short counterpart. Based on what I've said about the Direxion ETF, it's very likely that this ETF gets approved as well, because its of an existing BTC futures product, like the SEC wants.This also lines up perfectly with my new wave analysis saying that wave-g is actually a short wave, and there are 5 shorter waves that are similar in time, and 2 longer waves that are similar in time. This is within the guidelines for a diametric and so it seems very likely that we should be ending this months-long correction on August 23rd, and from there we could head towards 100k+.
This new count may even work better than my old count because before it was 4 shorter waves and 3 longer waves, which is out of the guidelines for a diametric, unless two waves are combined, like I had done. However, I still maintain that this new count is much more probable because its simpler, and we're likely to see some major bullish price action sooner rather than later.
Nota
sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2018-02/nysearca201802-3676326-162451.pdfThis paper makes a good case for why the Proshares Bitcoin Futures ETF should be approved.
Nota
cointelegraph.com/news/sec-rejects-9-bitcoin-etf-applications-from-proshares-direxion-and-granitesharesProshares and Direxion ETFs got denied, so the next most likely possibility is the Vaneck ETF. However, its only been delayed once and will most likely get delayed again after September 30th, until February 27th.
So with that said I'd stop paying so much attention to the ETFs for now, and focus just on the EW count. I'm still very confident this is wave-g and should be ending sometime soon. Most likely this wont go significantly lower but we could still see some more bearish price action from here. I'd say we might have a few more days of bearish consolidation, but then we should get a pretty big break up soon, possibly within the next few days.
Nota
After some closer analysis, and without considering any possible ETF decisions, what ends up making the most sense is this new count. The differences are very subtle, but it seems like the most likely date for wave-g to end is going to be August 27th.
There are a few factors that helped me determine that date. First of all, the momentum in the short-term looks like we need another leg down before any likely bounce, which could take a few days to play out.
Also wave-f likely ended on July 24th, and if we take the time of wave-d and add it on to the end of wave-f, the target for the end of wave-g would be Aug 27th. The reason why I choose wave-d and not some other wave, is because of the short-term momentum looking like it would be ready to bounce around that time.
The other two possible targets are Aug 25th, and Sep 22nd. However, it doesn't have to be an exact hit on any of these targets, just roughly around that time we should be looking for a bottom. I suspect that the momentum and price will likely give the final signal to enter, so long as we get a buy signal around the time targets it will be a very very good r/r trade to take at that point.
Nota
The internal count of wave-(g) looks to be an extremely complex triple diametric. The interesting thing about this pattern is that there are nearly 20 consecutive waves that are almost all time-similar.
It also ends perfectly with the larger time target saying that this should end around the 27th (+/- 1 day). I think we'll likely see a wave-g of (g) down that will probably be about as big as the most recent wave-c.
However, wave-g could really be any price, the more important thing will be to look for a buy signal confirmation around the time that wave-g is expected to end. It may not drop very low or it could go significantly lower, either way it will probably be good timing to buy tomorrow.
Nota
Based on the short-term count it looks like wave-f just completed and we are beginning wave-g of (g) now. This means this should be the FINAL leg down before we finish this 9 month long correction and begin a massive, market-wide bull-run.
So far price has conformed EXTREMELY well to my short-term AND intermediate counts. This is a strong indication that my count is correct and we are very very close to the end of this correction.
Based on the short-term count it looks like this is going to stretch out an extra day, and we should end sometime around August 28th, between 1:00am-1:00pm EST.
Nota
Appears that we are starting to climb now. Wave-g was actually probably very short in time and my short-term count was wrong. However, it's still significantly lower than when I originally said to sell at 8200 (currently 7000), so we are still a nice profit from that sell, and now it looks like it's almost time to buy again. I will be publishing this as a standalone chart soon.
Nota
All future updates will be posted on the above chart
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