BTCUSD : potential further drop in price
Hi guys,
So last post I projected that a bearish scenario and further down in price would see a rise in price in 3 waves (ABC) to 6.3k or so.
This ABC formation normally shows that the trend is the opposite way. So if you have a rise in price in a ABC form after a 5 waves drop, that mean that the trend is most likely to resume in drop in price. On the opposite, if you see a 5 waves rise and a drop in a 3 waves form, that mean the trend will resume with a rise. Thats what allowed me to project a rise, we identified the 5th wave drop and I was projecting a recovery. If it was a 5 waves rise, I would have expected a corrective 3 wave (ABC)
I have identified a 3 waves pattern after an impulsive 5 waves patterns. You can see when an ABC is finish : the C has a completed 5 waves pattern in it. I invite you to read the point 4.5 that explain the composition of a corrective pattern. elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/
For this scenario the support i have identified is +- 3.5k. The bearish trend can resume with a zig zag. There are five types of corrective patterns:
• Zigzag (5-3-5)
• Flat (3-3-5)
• Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
• Double three: A combination of two corrective patterns (WXY)
• Triple three: A combination of three corrective patterns (WXYXZ)
Since we have a 5 waves and a 3 waves formation i think the bearish trend gonna resume in a zigzag 5-3-5. Even with a bullish crossover on the 1D MACD, the daily MACD is so deep in the negative spectrum that a short term rise toward higher value has low probability.
The weekly is not in good shape too. 1W MACD has an addition of bearish MACD crossover and a bearish MACD midline crossover with a negative trajectory. In the best scenario price would have to sustain at our current lvl (6.3) for 2-3 weeks, but right now the we can only suggest further down in price.
So last post I projected that a bearish scenario and further down in price would see a rise in price in 3 waves (ABC) to 6.3k or so.
This ABC formation normally shows that the trend is the opposite way. So if you have a rise in price in a ABC form after a 5 waves drop, that mean that the trend is most likely to resume in drop in price. On the opposite, if you see a 5 waves rise and a drop in a 3 waves form, that mean the trend will resume with a rise. Thats what allowed me to project a rise, we identified the 5th wave drop and I was projecting a recovery. If it was a 5 waves rise, I would have expected a corrective 3 wave (ABC)
I have identified a 3 waves pattern after an impulsive 5 waves patterns. You can see when an ABC is finish : the C has a completed 5 waves pattern in it. I invite you to read the point 4.5 that explain the composition of a corrective pattern. elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/
For this scenario the support i have identified is +- 3.5k. The bearish trend can resume with a zig zag. There are five types of corrective patterns:
• Zigzag (5-3-5)
• Flat (3-3-5)
• Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
• Double three: A combination of two corrective patterns (WXY)
• Triple three: A combination of three corrective patterns (WXYXZ)
Since we have a 5 waves and a 3 waves formation i think the bearish trend gonna resume in a zigzag 5-3-5. Even with a bullish crossover on the 1D MACD, the daily MACD is so deep in the negative spectrum that a short term rise toward higher value has low probability.
The weekly is not in good shape too. 1W MACD has an addition of bearish MACD crossover and a bearish MACD midline crossover with a negative trajectory. In the best scenario price would have to sustain at our current lvl (6.3) for 2-3 weeks, but right now the we can only suggest further down in price.
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Comentarios:
nothing worth of a full update, i maintain the bearish trend mid to long term
