Good morning, traders. We've made it to Friday once more but those of us in the U.S. awoke to news that Binance will suspend trading of U.S.-based customers in 90 days (September 12th). This is expected since Binance is actually opening a U.S. exchange. In doing so, there are certain U.S. regulations that they must adhere to which requires them to do what they can to restrict U.S. customers from using their main exchange. By doing this, they can come into compliance with the laws and make sure their U.S. launch is smooth and unencumbered. With U.S. customers making up a paltry 15% of Binance's volume, I don't see this having much effect on alts. If it does, it will be reactionary and temporary from emotional retail traders who imagine the worst. We don't have a launch date for the U.S. exchange yet, however U.S. customers will either VPN to the main Binance exchange (as long as they aren't KYC-processed yet) after September 12th, or they will trade on one of the U.S.-based exchanges like Bittrex, Poloniex, Coinbase, Gemini (don't do this), or Kraken. The benefit of this is increased liquidity at these exchanges and, with Bittrex in particular, I believe we may see a new season for old-school alts.
So what's going on with Bitcoin today? Same old story, different day. Just a slow grind upward within a large, month-old TR for now. However, there are some general things that I want to remind you of: 1) price has exited through the large descending black channel's resistance which provides a target of ~$9050, 2) price is consolidating just above the red TR with a target of ~$8850, 3) price is possibly printing an ascending wedge with a target of $7650-$7750 depending on when price drops through wedge support. In terms of the wedge, a break through its resistance, instead, has a target between $8950 and $9050 depending on when it does so.
The 4H Stoch RSI has remained within overbought for a while now and RSI is nearing overbought (as it hovers near its ascending channel resistance). If we don't see a strong push up toward $9000 sooner rather than later, it seems most likely that the wedge will play out. We can see the R1 pivot at ~$8430, as well as the top of the blue month-old TR just below that at $8352. Price topping out anywhere between its current level and the R1 pivot makes sense and allows it to retrace before pushing higher. A retrace is likely looking at $7850-$7960 before heading back up. I am a little hesitant about the lower end of that range, though, since it takes price below the pivot and since we've already pushed up through the pivot the expectation should be continued upward momentum. As such, if the wedge plays out then we might expect to see price reach $8500-$8550 before falling through wedge support thereby providing a retracement range that is above the pivot. I would like to see price remain above the red TR's EQ as that would show strong demand.
A final word on ascending wedges: Often retail traders want to see a wedge because, to them, it makes it easier to justify their fear of price reversing as it grinds up slowly. Remember, the longer it takes price to move appreciably the more time a trader has to consider and reconsider their position, often leading them to change their minds and jump in and out. So what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move.
During this morning's video update (link below) I will take a look at some possible Elliott Wave counts and what I think may be going on from that perspective.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
So what's going on with Bitcoin today? Same old story, different day. Just a slow grind upward within a large, month-old TR for now. However, there are some general things that I want to remind you of: 1) price has exited through the large descending black channel's resistance which provides a target of ~$9050, 2) price is consolidating just above the red TR with a target of ~$8850, 3) price is possibly printing an ascending wedge with a target of $7650-$7750 depending on when price drops through wedge support. In terms of the wedge, a break through its resistance, instead, has a target between $8950 and $9050 depending on when it does so.
The 4H Stoch RSI has remained within overbought for a while now and RSI is nearing overbought (as it hovers near its ascending channel resistance). If we don't see a strong push up toward $9000 sooner rather than later, it seems most likely that the wedge will play out. We can see the R1 pivot at ~$8430, as well as the top of the blue month-old TR just below that at $8352. Price topping out anywhere between its current level and the R1 pivot makes sense and allows it to retrace before pushing higher. A retrace is likely looking at $7850-$7960 before heading back up. I am a little hesitant about the lower end of that range, though, since it takes price below the pivot and since we've already pushed up through the pivot the expectation should be continued upward momentum. As such, if the wedge plays out then we might expect to see price reach $8500-$8550 before falling through wedge support thereby providing a retracement range that is above the pivot. I would like to see price remain above the red TR's EQ as that would show strong demand.
A final word on ascending wedges: Often retail traders want to see a wedge because, to them, it makes it easier to justify their fear of price reversing as it grinds up slowly. Remember, the longer it takes price to move appreciably the more time a trader has to consider and reconsider their position, often leading them to change their minds and jump in and out. So what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move.
During this morning's video update (link below) I will take a look at some possible Elliott Wave counts and what I think may be going on from that perspective.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
