Bitcoin is at a critical turning point and one of three things is supposed to happen at this point:
1. The price breaks the trend line resistance and resumes rally. --- LIKELY
2. The price falls towards $3,000 (slightly below 200 MA) and bounces back strongly --- VERY LIKELY
3. The price falls towards the bottom of the wedge (significantly below 200 MA), ends up closing below the 200 MA and yet rallies towards the 61.8% Fib retracement. --- VERY UNLIKELY
Conclusion: The first two possibilities point to the bullish case based on the assumption that Bitcoin (BTC) is about to bottom out and begin a new cycle. Considering that we have been through an extensive bear market, this would appear to be the plausible scenario. The third possibility points to a bearish scenario based on the assumption that the bear market is not over yet and the price will continue to fall for a long time as uncertainty looms over in the stock market. There are some people that expect the price to rally towards $5,000 or higher even after closing below the 200 Week MA but I do not think that is likely. In fact, I expect the price to fall a lot lower if scenario three follows through.
1. The price breaks the trend line resistance and resumes rally. --- LIKELY
2. The price falls towards $3,000 (slightly below 200 MA) and bounces back strongly --- VERY LIKELY
3. The price falls towards the bottom of the wedge (significantly below 200 MA), ends up closing below the 200 MA and yet rallies towards the 61.8% Fib retracement. --- VERY UNLIKELY
Conclusion: The first two possibilities point to the bullish case based on the assumption that Bitcoin (BTC) is about to bottom out and begin a new cycle. Considering that we have been through an extensive bear market, this would appear to be the plausible scenario. The third possibility points to a bearish scenario based on the assumption that the bear market is not over yet and the price will continue to fall for a long time as uncertainty looms over in the stock market. There are some people that expect the price to rally towards $5,000 or higher even after closing below the 200 Week MA but I do not think that is likely. In fact, I expect the price to fall a lot lower if scenario three follows through.