Swing opportunity on cluster support, technical & macro plan

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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• Momentum: Tech sector bias supportive on higher timeframes (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy” on 1D/12H) despite MTFTI “Down” on intraday (15min to 6H).
  
• Key Supports: Major cluster at 111,900–112,772 (W Pivot High, 12H/24H Pivot Low). Critical defense short/mid term.
  
• Resistances: 114,723, then 115,900, then 119,800–122,318 (break to relaunch impulse).
  
• Volumes: Moderate to normal across all timeframes: no panic or capitulation.
  
• Multi-TF Behaviour: ISPD DIV neutral everywhere: neither fear nor euphoria; wait-and-see market. No climax nor emotional extremes: conducive to squeeze or extension after catalyst.
  

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Strategic Summary
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• Global Bias: Neutral to cautious bullish if 111,900–112,772 holds (invalidate if <111,900).
  
• Opportunities: Defensive swing long entries on support. Gradual targets: 114,723, 115,900, 119,800–122,318.
  
• Risks: Daily/4H close below 111,900 = acceleration towards $110k/$105k (on-chain air-gap).
  
• Macro Catalysts: Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Ukraine/China), China crypto ban headlines, sector decoupling, Fed/BoE policy.
  
• Action Plan: Strict stop management (<111,750), agile on volume/ISPD signals. Critical macro monitoring: any exogenous move can trigger directional volatility.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1. 1D (Daily): Key support 114,723.2. Tech sector indicator (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) bullish. MTFTI Up. Normal volume, no panic. Lack of ISPD oversold signal.
   
2. 12H: Support W Pivot High 111,900 – 12H Pivot Low 111,920. Uptrend, moderately higher volumes, ISPD neutral. Battling for support maintenance and bounce.
   
3. 6H: Core pivot support 111,900–112,000. MTFTI Down. No volume excess or sentiment signal. End of momentum, increase vigilance.
   
4. 4H: Weakness confirmed, supports 112,000–112,500, resistance 117,722 to 119,800. Last short-term rampart tested.
   
5. 2H-1H: Bearish, attacks on 111,900–112,772 supports, immediate resistance at 114,723/115,900. Weak range market.
   
6. 30min-15min: Neutral, lower range between supports (111,900–112,772) and resistances (113,950–114,723). Volatility on breakout events, no sector bias.
   
7. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Persistent “Buy” on higher timeframes (12H/1D), neutral/bearish intraday (4H and below).
   
8. ISPD DIV: No extremes detected: no exhaustion, panic or major oversold; “range” environment.
   
9. Volumes: Normal, no climax or anomaly. Market awaiting a catalyst.
   

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Fundamental, Macro Events, Sentiment Overview
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• Macro: Newsflow on China crypto ban, multiple tensions (Gaza, Russia-Ukraine), Fed/BoE slowing. Globally cautious setting despite no direct institutional shock.
  
• On-chain (Glassnode): Major OTC sale (~80k BTC) absorbed, 97% supply in profit: “moderate euphoria” phase, not capitulation; on-chain supports $110–117k, resistance $125–141k, air-gap below $115k.
  
• Twitter: No panic, “final wick” narrative then anticipated technical rebound. No institutional outflows. China ban read as cyclical FUD.
  

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Summary & Action Plan
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• Support 111,900–112,772 = key multi-TF cluster; area for defensive swing opportunity.
  
• MTFTI is “Down” on lower TF, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on daily/12H.
  
• No capitulation, normal volume, market waiting for catalyst.
  
• Swing bullish invalidated below 111,900—stop required, R/R 1:2 minimum.
  
• Fast reclaim above 114,723 plus strong upside volume: short squeeze & potential extension to 119,800–122,318.
  
• Macro monitoring essential (China ban, monetary policy, geopolitics).
  

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• Operational Summary: Favor defensive swing long plans on multi-TF cluster support (111,900–112,772), strict stop <111,750, progressive TPs to 114,723/115,900/119,800. Stay opportunistic: bias cautiously bullish but risk management is paramount in a cautious global environment and with no strong extremes detected.
  

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