BTC simple analysis: box retest

23 may

Chart finished a bearish Elliot Wave and now can u-turn. Since it didn't complete full volume correction, it can go directly to 338% of E.W. fibonacci.

• Fibonacci is between 2 and 4 of E.W.
  
• The boxes are from an hour that was five times repited from a previous HH (or LL).
  
• Retest can finish without hitting the box.
  

Sidenote: I have two boxes and don't know which on chart will go, but it will still go up so there shouldn't be any problem.

23 may

Operación cerrada manualmente

Simple hit and bounce right in the first box. I put SL on profit, always remember this; trade secured.

Now that retest was successful, chart may return and do a retest on the second (higher) box on friday. Still, I don't have a confirmation, so buying now is risky. Since bearish trend is starting, there's a higher chance that chart keep going bearish until 66.231K. Good luck!

23 may

Nota

Didn't touch 300% of candle box and LL.

Chart went bearish but, like I said, Friday is better to trade. If you want to take the risk, BTC is following EURUSD lead as bearish, meaning that on bullish we could see a divergence and I believe EURUSD will keep it doji (bearish first, then bullish) while BTC should take advantage and go green engulfing (bullish). If both go engulfing, then it would be better and easier to predict.

This candlestick (hour 1:00) is the fifth, in other words, it haves potential of going full bearish. I recommend to wait until this hour pass so then take action.

24 may

Operación activa

I'll take action now. There's a risk so, trade wise.

24 may

Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado

Since it turned out like this: BTC didn't pump when EURUSD did, giving open doors for BTC for a great bullish movement. But if it doesn't do it by today, then it will wait for monday.

This recent bearishtrend was a divergence, I don't see why it will keep going bearish, but, since is a divergence, trading will be of high risk.

I'll buy again because of the two sets of ae. waves. This trade is of high risk so trade wise.

24 may

Operación activa

Prediction was successful. E.W. has been settled; todays goal would be 300% of fibo.

*fibonacci is between 2 and 4 peak of E.W.

Move SL to profit.

👍

24 may

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Profit should be taken. Now we can await an bearish movement. Still, if you want to hold, TP is still on 70k or higher.

24 may

Nota

The bearish movement should take all saturday. It can finish with just shadows.

25 may

Nota

This is the plan.

Since it turned sideways, bearish movement should happen later.

*Box has been identified. It works as retest, but it may wait until chart go a little away from it.

*I truly recommend not letting the trading open in sundays.

27 may

Nota

New week, new start, new pump.
In the comments I writted that chart will do a double bottom and, instead of reaching an already bottom peak, it created one in saturday (half day) and the other one in sunday building in itself a double bottom. Now that monday EURUSD market is on the move, we can see that there is a great divergence ocurring where chart is going full bullish even when in EURUSD, USD currency is not showing same strength. In other words, bitcoin has lost a lot of strength. Since USD has been alright, there is actually no need for it to become stronger, but when bitcoin does, it will surely make USD drop.

Today's goal would be the upper box. The USD drop may happen tomorrow, so stay tune.

*If EURUSD becomes bullish, breaking new high, it will drag BTC with it. But seeing how things are, EURUSD may drop first and then BTC second. This can be use for confirmation.

27 may

Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado

New urgent analysis:
The USD drop will make market stay sideways. But if USD weakens to much, this may produce a huge volatility effect. On high volatility, SL may get hunted.

Since chart is on the bearish now, it doesn't necessary mean it will stay that way. Chart is reacting to the box as retest but is unclear the direction since it is a high volatility effect. Patience would be the wise answer until we have a good analysis of the current chart movements and to see how EURUSD will go.

27 may

Operación activa

I'll start from here. It should be of great chance since USD will drop sooner or later.

27 may

Operación activa

Aditionally, minor E.W. has been setled. SL should be behind 1 peak and TP should be on 300% of fibonacci.

Trade wise 👍

27 may

Operación activa

Cloose SL on profit.

28 may

Nota

Good news. Tuesday haves high chance to be a bearish candle. Can't tell how far will go, though. It would be wise to let the TP open and keep it SL tracking (probably around 68.8k). Remember to move SL on profit, always do it.

28 may

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Everytime you can keep opening bearish trades if candle returns to the opening on daily time frame candlestick. This is because it haves high chanve of being bearish. Once it finishes (24hr), the other candlestick will go bullish, at least, for some time.

29 may

Operación activa

Midday waves detect a posible bullishtrend right now. Two sets of ae. waves show same prediction. Seeing how USD loose strength on EURUSD market, BTC seems to lead USD, so there's a great chance that BTC become even weaker then USD and make chart go bullish for a while. SL is anonymous so,

trade wise 👍.

30 may

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Cloose SL on profit, always do this.

A 300% of bottom candlestick fibonacci has been reached and chart bounce on hit. I still think it will rise, but, for safety, I recommend to take profit now.

30 may

Operación activa

Prediction was successful. Chart reached box and bounced. USD took the lead and both markets (EURUSD and BTCUSD) went bullish. It broke diagonal D1 resistance, but still unpredictable on lower frames. Following midday (AE) waves, chart may finish bullish for now.

USD may weaken for a day, so, we can expect another bearish movement for at least half a day. If BTC becomes weaker then dollar then chart will change direction.

Note: The bearish movement may just be a sideways phase.

Trade wise 👍.