Principles of trading. Principle one: regularity vs chaos.

12 jun 2023

☝I suddenly had the idea to do another course. There will be no practical tasks in it and it is rather philosophical, i.e. it seems like blah blah blah. And those who are not satisfied with this may not read further, I am aware of this thing. 👍
It is difficult to write about trading. Although it all depends on your view of it and the answer to the question: “What is Trading?”. Skipping everything that is written about financial and personal freedom, which seems to accompany trading, a very significant question will remain on the surface — are there patterns in the market?
🚩Some think YES. This point of view has its basis, it lies in the form of the theory of Dow, the existing cyclicity, and, in my opinion, a deeper reason — our perception of the environment. It is much more convenient to perceive the environment when you think that it is regularity. Then the structure of learning becomes clear, it has been haunting us since kindergarten: from simple to complex, but at every step everything is very fundamental and unshakable. Probably for those who believe that there are patterns in the market, it is better not to read further and I will even say no more to communicate with me on the topic of the market. Look at the development of “retail” trading. How much software has been written, books have been published, examples have been given, and the people who wrote it are probably smarter and more literate than me. BUT ... yes, there is one thing, but very significant. With the publication of new books and the emergence of new theories and robots, the statistics of the retail market do not change. And I think the average loss statistics among retail customers is around 85%. I don't think that 85 percent of the people who came to the market are illiterate and are not able to master the material that is set out in the training material that is offered to them. If this figure was approaching 50 percent, then in principle everything would be OK. Some are a little faster than others, but the existing alignment shows that only one of the seven “correctly” knows how to spread Fibo networks, and this is more an accident than a pattern. Trading according to patterns is like moving along a Mobius strip. Now you are doing everything right and going forward firmly, you are following all the parameters and you are not changing anything, and you are already upside down and moving in the opposite direction.
🚩And then a sneaky thought creeps in, or maybe there is NO pattern. And it's all a random element, chaos. If there are no patterns, then there can be no rules. There can be no rules, so it's not worth doing this. The answer is two-digit, yes, I think there are no patterns, but there should be rules. After all, the market is a redistribution of finite material resources. And therefore, before people sell something, they have to buy something or produce what they want to sell. And they will buy only what they need in the foreseeable future. Ie, there must be goals for both sale and purchase. But these goals are set by a person. Therefore, these goals will not be unchanged. Consequently, supply and demand, the parameters that determine the price at the moment are not an unshakable constant. And therefore there can be no patterns in the market. Does this mean that there can be no rules in trading, of course, there will be, but they will change, but the rules will change according to certain human desires, but it's easier for me to say principles.
☝So, we will talk about the principles of trading. And we have the first principle - there are no patterns in the market. Those who agree read on. Who does not agree, other fields of knowledge are waiting for you and I wish you good luck.
Any comments will only make the branch of these posts better, so WELCOME🤝