Bitcoin seems Ready to make a small Rally towards 8600/8800
Actualizado
Bitcoin has made some frustrating moves lately, they keep getting worse. The moves i mean are the squeezes up and down, these are produced by whales to push out day traders from their long and short positions and to put their losses into their pockets. The only way to to stop this, is take on smaller positions so you can take on wider stops. So you don't get pushed out by those fake 100/200 point squeezes!
So far it has been moving according to the fractal i have been showing lately, but i think it has come to an end now. Bitcoin seems to have formed a small bullish wedge from which it will probably break out of today. Still a chance for a drop of course, but i give that 20% chance at the moment. As long as we don't break the 7900/7800 we can assume we will see the 8600/8800 soon again. Now if this rally happens, there are 2 possibilities. It's the start of a second rally to break the 10K, a break of 9000 and 9400 would be a big step. Or it's just a temp move towards the 8700 and to continue the drop and if the 7900 breaks it will probably continue the down trend again. If this happens, a break of 7000ish will probably confirm we never left the big downtrend. Many Alts show bearish signals, some even underperformed Bitcoin.
The last few days i mentioned we are around the 50 yard line for the med term, when we were around the 8200. So far we dropped towards the 7900, but it has not been a big drop so the direction for the med term has not been taken yet. This keep options open for both sides. I tend to look at the down side, since it was my bigger plan picture since the 6K's even a month ago. But this wedge could change things. It shows there are buyers in the building. So actually nothing has changed for the med term, since the market has not really shown it's hand on the med term. We will probably get an answer in the next few days.
I have posted some analysis on a few Alts and updated them as well yesterday. I would say, take a look at those as well, to get a feeling on what the market is probably thinking.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
David
Previous analysis
So far it has been moving according to the fractal i have been showing lately, but i think it has come to an end now. Bitcoin seems to have formed a small bullish wedge from which it will probably break out of today. Still a chance for a drop of course, but i give that 20% chance at the moment. As long as we don't break the 7900/7800 we can assume we will see the 8600/8800 soon again. Now if this rally happens, there are 2 possibilities. It's the start of a second rally to break the 10K, a break of 9000 and 9400 would be a big step. Or it's just a temp move towards the 8700 and to continue the drop and if the 7900 breaks it will probably continue the down trend again. If this happens, a break of 7000ish will probably confirm we never left the big downtrend. Many Alts show bearish signals, some even underperformed Bitcoin.
The last few days i mentioned we are around the 50 yard line for the med term, when we were around the 8200. So far we dropped towards the 7900, but it has not been a big drop so the direction for the med term has not been taken yet. This keep options open for both sides. I tend to look at the down side, since it was my bigger plan picture since the 6K's even a month ago. But this wedge could change things. It shows there are buyers in the building. So actually nothing has changed for the med term, since the market has not really shown it's hand on the med term. We will probably get an answer in the next few days.
I have posted some analysis on a few Alts and updated them as well yesterday. I would say, take a look at those as well, to get a feeling on what the market is probably thinking.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
David
Previous analysis
Nota
There is still a 50/50 chance we will see a move like this. This rally is not strong so far, this small bull is getting extended to much almostNota
A zoom in of this picture, now that blue line is a possibility! Still inside that small bull flagNota
Certainly not the breakout it should have, but like Bitfinex it still did not break out yet, maybe that's the reason. If it goes like this, chances increase for a drop first before going upNota
Finally, after half a day moving within 60 points we have a small breakout. It's still not what it should be to confirm the wedge, so could still happen but if it takes to long we could drop again like i mentioned earlierNota
I think the break out rally was quite weak, still inside a small bull flag, but i think it will break. Probably 2 options now, the blue and the red line. With the blue it stays within this channel, but i think it will follow the red line, so dropping out of he channel and make a higher low around 8000/8100. A double bottom at 7900 could also happenNota
Bulls are showing up again, looks allot like the previous flag now. not much to say, moving extremely sideways againNota
Still not much to say, it followed the blue line from the chart above here but the attempt toe break the bull flag was to weak again and it dropped out of the channel. Now it's trying to get back in, but so far not succeeding. Thing with this sideways action, makes predictability very difficult on the low time frames. As i mentioned before, a double bottom around 7900 is also possible. An upwards break of 8280/8300 would probably mean the rally continues. We are talking about 50 at the moment, but it looks like the biggest and longest fight ever, that's how boring Bitcoin has become :). It's weekend, volumes are lower and manipulation is always at it's maximum, so be aware of making trades, long and short.Nota
Looks like they are going for it Nota
When we look at the small bull flag, it's almost identical to the one before around 8100. Because the breakout was small and disappointing i thought it would make a higher low before really breaking out, but that clearly was not the case. When a market wants to break out, it usually does it with much more conviction and there fore more speed, that was not the case here. Since the bull flags are identical, it smells like a controlled move!Now it seems to be on a small crossroad, against a heavy resistance around 8400/8450 AND that purple trend line is hanging above it. If they manage to push it above these resistances, the road to 8600/8800 should be open, i only see another resistance around 8550 on the way
Nota
This rally is smaller/weaker than the others, if it drops below the 8200 it could turn out to be a fake upwards breakout, something Bitcoin is very good at the past month or 2 (on both sides)Nota
I have an educational post on bitcoin and crypto market in general, almost ready. Nothing fundamental, just about how mean markets are and work. Wanted to post it 1 or 2 months ago but i was afraid people would start to hate me :). It's still what i am afraid of. So my question to you guys now is, do you want to see it or not? Because i guarantee, you won't like it if your a long term bull. It's mostly an objective view mixed with some my personal opinion.Nota
Sorry guys i deleted it again, because i just noticed i used the XBT chart. I am going to put in a normal BTC chart and post it again. Anyone knows an easy way to copy everything? Or do i have to do it manually? The chart i meanNota
Anyone knows how to copy the chart drawings to another? Would save me some timeNota
Some movement in Bitcoin people, just amazing :)Still above that green support area, if bulls manage to bounce up from there, than there is a chance the rally could just continue to go on. If it breaks, we could expect prices around 8000/7900
Nota
Bitcoin is having some trouble with the resistance, a few alts are against the resistance as well. But normally they should break and i expect them to do, but i would have rather seen a bit more convincing rally than thisNota
Just no strength at all, dropped out of that channel so this inverse H&S could very easily fail. If that green area holds there is still a chance that it break upwards, below 8200/8150 think we nee expect 7900/8000. So almost 2 days later still nothing has changed. Boooooorrrriiiinngggg!!! Nota
By the way, thanks for making me the nr 1 monthly author :) A new record, AND getting me above the 10.000 followers milestone :) Thank youNota
So price did break out, but still not a big rally. Did break the trend line and there was some volume at the breakout, so we have to assume we go towards the 8600 next, i have my doubts if it can reach the 8800. Could make a small drop towards the neckline first, if it does that first than the chances increase we go towards 8800, if we see some volume of courseNota
On the lower time frame it does look stronger, still inside the bull flag. So there is a chance to give this rally some strength, but it's against that rising trend line so it won't be easy.Nota
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