BTCUSD: Outside Bar Offers Hint Of Bullish Reversal To 15K?

18 ene 2018

BTCUSD update: Outside bar like candle forms within the 10988 to 8656 support zone, and more specifically bounces off the 9683 lower boundary of the reversal zone. Just like in the other markets, this is a place to be looking for longs for swing and position trades.

Funny how people criticize and ridicule TA, meanwhile levels that I have projected weeks ago are providing very reliable reference points. The 10988 to 8656 support zone is the .618 area relevant to the recent bullish structure. It is a high probability area for bullish reversals and now that price has retested it, the herd is reacting as anticipated (what happened to 30K?). The outside bar that is in place at the moment is a good start. It means that there is some evidence of buyers in this area.

The other notable level is the 9683 boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 10700 previous low. This zone between 10700 and 9683 presents and area where IF a bullish reversal is going to happen, this would be the area with the most probability. This zone is one that I like to refer to as the "fake out" zone and works the same way at peaks. It is based on the same concept as the false break out. The majority of participants get out or get short and there is no one left to keep the momentum going. There is no guarantee that price will reverse back up dramatically from here, but it is an area to evaluate risk from and consider longs for both swing and position trades.

A swing trade time horizon can be from days to weeks while a position trade can be from weeks to months. The particular level is attractive for both because of the larger magnitude of the correction which translates into a broader move higher ones price can prove stability.

I will be looking for stability in the form of chart formations that will take some time to unfold. The bullish outside bar is only a preliminary sign and price can still retest the 9683 low or slightly lower before reversing. Any failed low or smaller magnitude higher low would be a good sign for longs within this area. The first resistance break to also watch for is the old support/new resistance now at the 11700 level which price is clearly reacting to at the moment. A break back above would signal bullish momentum is back.

As far as my trades, I have a position trade long from 13150 that I entered weeks ago and have no intention of selling. I am also looking to add more to that position around these levels and to add a swing trade as well when a clear structure unfolds that I can measure risk from. In terms of reasonable targets, the 14211 to 15252 resistance zone is the reference point that I am using at the moment.

In summary, for now BTC is still the main currency in this space and until it no longer has merit, buying supports in the midst of broader corrections is still a good idea in my opinion. Also as much as people keep hyping or dramatizing lower prices, this market is not in a broader bearish trend. We are just within a normal correction of a larger magnitude which shakes out the less experienced because they are too focused on the noise, hype and drama. This is nothing unusual and is necessary for a healthy market to continue. Any retest of lower prices, and I will be looking to add to longs. Also it doesn't hurt to start small positions in an area like this as well without the use of margin. In these markets, anything can happen, no matter what a chart looks like, but most of the time general probabilities of levels and price structure offer adequate guidelines for managing risk and taking positions more in line with market intentions and this is one of the reasons why TA is so valuable.

Questions ans comments welcome.