After checking out some of Bitcoin's earliest rallies, I noted that there are some eerie similarities between then and now. Especially on the retracement Bitcoin saw in 2011 - a 93% total correction once the bear market ended.
I am not an Elliott expert, but I believe this particular retracement in 2011 was a longer-term wave 2 ABC correction.
IF I am correct, the $20k ATH has now completed a full 10-year cycle wave 1. This means we should be beginning a wave 2 retracement. Once this bear market ends, that would leave us in wave 3 long-term- arguably the most powerful wave in the Elliott Sequence. In THEORY, this should eventually produce not only a new all time high, but one that blows well past $20k. The upcoming halvening has great timing for all of this to play out.
Back in 2011 Bitcoin experienced an abrupt retracement, very similar to the one we just had. After breaking key support, Bitcoin took a nosedive of ~82% but was able to V-bottom back up to test resistance on a powerful 100% B wave.
After the B wave completed and we confirmed resistance, Bitcoin plummeted again another ~82% for the C wave retracement. The final retracement of the ABC waves was a grand total of 93.5%.
Once the C wave retracement ended, Bitcoin went on to create new all time highs.
If we apply this prior price analysis to what we are currently seeing on the charts, the similarities are hard to ignore.
From the all time high, we have now dropped around ~84%. If prior price analysis holds up, it means we could potentially V-bottom again, testing key resistance at around $6,200-$6,500.
A rally back up to $6,200-$6,500 would be a perfect 100% B wave retracement, just like the B wave retracement in 2011.
If this rally is powerful enough to eventually take us back to those levels and get denied, it would further confirm this price analysis.
The B wave retracement is usually the shortest wave of the ABC series.
So if what we're experiencing now is a wave 2 ABC retracement, it would mean we will test resistance early Q1 2019. Depending on FOMO, possibly much sooner. Christmas rally anyone? :D
If B wave stops at around $6,200-$6,500, and we experience another drop similar to the one we just recently saw, we would end the bear market in Bitcoin somewhere around $1k.
Depending on where B wave stops, we could potentially see prices much lower than that. In my eyes, we need to see a relief rally back up to AT LEAST $5,750 in order to avoid triple-digit prices.
My long-term target for Bitcoin is nestled at around $950. I believe if panic truly grips this market upon C wave, we could see prices as low as London's target of $400.
A lot of arguments could be made upon whether Bitcoin would be healthy and/or a wise investment at those price levels, but it doesn't change what is in the charts.
2019 looks like it will be a much more bearish year than 2018, but Bitcoin has been known to surprise people.
With that said, we should see a powerful relief rally leading the way to the new year, and then DOWN WE GO.
Considering traditional equity markets are now in a clear downturn, it looks to me like 2019 will be a very difficult year in all financial markets. I doubt Bitcoin will be the exception, as much as I'd love to believe so.
A break above $12k some time next year will change my outlook, but until then this permabull is a BEAR.
Good luck everyone and happy price hunting :)
I am not an Elliott expert, but I believe this particular retracement in 2011 was a longer-term wave 2 ABC correction.
IF I am correct, the $20k ATH has now completed a full 10-year cycle wave 1. This means we should be beginning a wave 2 retracement. Once this bear market ends, that would leave us in wave 3 long-term- arguably the most powerful wave in the Elliott Sequence. In THEORY, this should eventually produce not only a new all time high, but one that blows well past $20k. The upcoming halvening has great timing for all of this to play out.
Back in 2011 Bitcoin experienced an abrupt retracement, very similar to the one we just had. After breaking key support, Bitcoin took a nosedive of ~82% but was able to V-bottom back up to test resistance on a powerful 100% B wave.
After the B wave completed and we confirmed resistance, Bitcoin plummeted again another ~82% for the C wave retracement. The final retracement of the ABC waves was a grand total of 93.5%.
Once the C wave retracement ended, Bitcoin went on to create new all time highs.
If we apply this prior price analysis to what we are currently seeing on the charts, the similarities are hard to ignore.
From the all time high, we have now dropped around ~84%. If prior price analysis holds up, it means we could potentially V-bottom again, testing key resistance at around $6,200-$6,500.
A rally back up to $6,200-$6,500 would be a perfect 100% B wave retracement, just like the B wave retracement in 2011.
If this rally is powerful enough to eventually take us back to those levels and get denied, it would further confirm this price analysis.
The B wave retracement is usually the shortest wave of the ABC series.
So if what we're experiencing now is a wave 2 ABC retracement, it would mean we will test resistance early Q1 2019. Depending on FOMO, possibly much sooner. Christmas rally anyone? :D
If B wave stops at around $6,200-$6,500, and we experience another drop similar to the one we just recently saw, we would end the bear market in Bitcoin somewhere around $1k.
Depending on where B wave stops, we could potentially see prices much lower than that. In my eyes, we need to see a relief rally back up to AT LEAST $5,750 in order to avoid triple-digit prices.
My long-term target for Bitcoin is nestled at around $950. I believe if panic truly grips this market upon C wave, we could see prices as low as London's target of $400.
A lot of arguments could be made upon whether Bitcoin would be healthy and/or a wise investment at those price levels, but it doesn't change what is in the charts.
2019 looks like it will be a much more bearish year than 2018, but Bitcoin has been known to surprise people.
With that said, we should see a powerful relief rally leading the way to the new year, and then DOWN WE GO.
Considering traditional equity markets are now in a clear downturn, it looks to me like 2019 will be a very difficult year in all financial markets. I doubt Bitcoin will be the exception, as much as I'd love to believe so.
A break above $12k some time next year will change my outlook, but until then this permabull is a BEAR.
Good luck everyone and happy price hunting :)
Comentarios:
the .618 retracement for this current drop, at least on Bitmex, is around $5,800.
Comentarios:
Many alts are red right now. This usually signals a big incoming move in Bitcoin.
Stay alert.
Many alts are red right now. This usually signals a big incoming move in Bitcoin.
Stay alert.
Comentarios:
Is Bitcoin on the verge of massive FOMO?
Is Bitcoin on the verge of massive FOMO?
Comentarios:
Let it be known.
Right this very second and for the past week or two I have been wondering...
Is this just the mother of all barts forming?
Right this very second and for the past week or two I have been wondering...
Is this just the mother of all barts forming?
