Possible BTC CME Gap Fill and Fib Level Retest

5 jul 2023

The chart says it all, BTC might decide to give max pain to the bears who are thinking that the 30k resistance will hold. In my opinion, the 35k zone is more important because it would be the retest of Bitcoin's previous bear market consolidation area and the first meaningful fib level retest. I still remain bearish in the big picture like in my previous post made when BTC was above 60k and personally believe that lower lows will come after this impulsive move to the upside. My 15k target for the previous move was hit to the T, and I believe that the next downtrend will go below that area if the bear market has not ended. 9k is the level I am looking at the most.

However, I do currently have a small long position for this potential short-term bullish move.

5 ago 2023

Operación cerrada manualmente

I closed my small long for a very small overall loss because I do not like the setup anymore. While it is still entirely possible that this hypothetical scenario will play out soon (we are in a falling wedge, after all), there are also some warning signs in the chart. I do not like how weak the latest pump has been compared to the previous one. We barely pushed higher than the past peak and essentially created an unconfirmed double top. Could the third falling wedge in a row play out bullishly again and push above 32k this time? Possible, but the market does not usually reward scenarios that are too obvious. My macro bearish view remains the strongest so it will take a price action confirmation for me to consider re-entering the position.

18 ago 2023

Nota

Good thing we exited the trade before the dump! My macro view remains bearish.