🔥 Comparing Different Bitcoin Cycles

13 jul 2021

With this analysis I want to shed some light on where we currently are in the fourth Bitcoin bull-cycle, compared to the previous three cycles. I measure the cycle from low after previous cycle to high of the cycle. There are different ways of drawing the cycles (comparing halvings for example), but for me this one makes the most sense.

There's several very interesting things that one can deduce from this graph.
1) The cycles are getting less intense. The difference between the top and the low is relatively diminishing, making each cycle less explosive than the previous.
2) The cycles are getting longer. With each new cycle, it takes longer to reach the top of the cycle. "Time is your friend" has never been more fitting.

When we look at the current cycle we can see a couple of things that are standing out from the other cycles.
1) There's been several occasions where the current cycle "went too fast" comparing to other cycles, after which BTC had to cool off for a couple of months. This has been a major thing with the most recent sell-off from 65k > 30k. BTC was ahead of schedule by a lot, so it had to correct by a lot to get below the previous cycle's growth path.
2) The current cycle is the most volatile one, which is caused by the COVID dump last year and the subsequent massive quantitative easing that followed.

In previous analyses I've mentioned that I think that we're currently in a mid-cycle correction. My arguments for this are that this cycle is too short to be completed. At the very least we "should" have another 8-14 months for the current cycle. Furthermore, the top of the cycle is not even close where it should be, compared to previous cycles.
Looking at the blue trend-line, the top of the cycle should be somewhere from 100k-150k (rough estimate).

To conclude, I'm confident that Bitcoin will see another strong bullish push. The current cycle is far from over.

Happy trading!