Halving and highs, the road to a 70.000 dollar Bitcoin
My long term analysis on the all time BLX log chart:
- vertical lines represent reward halvings and highs in between these halvings.
- Green dotted line is extremely bullish scenario, red dotted line is extremely bearish scenario. The reality will be somewhere in between, nobody knows for sure...
Observations:
- High is never during the time of halving but somewhere in between halvings.
- During halving events price rides the lower band on the log chart.
- The low point after high is few months before halving (during the halving event it is already in an uptrend).
Expectations:
- During 2020 halving the price of Bitcoin is riding the lower band (between 6.000 & 7.000 USD).
- End of Year 2019 we could see a push up to new highs (around 40.000 USD) but I think it is too close before the halving event and it would be unique based on historical patterns. It could be caused by a catalyst like ETF launch or something of the sort.
- End of year 2019 we could have crashed to the red line (around 1.200 USD), what some people would see as the C wave of the EW's. I think this is overly bearish because we would break the lower band. This could be caused by a unique event similar to MT. Gox hack in 2013/2014. Some people see Tether manipulation as a reason this could happen, I personally do not.
- More likely would be more sideways or slightly down to the lower band, and riding it slowly upwards. After halving event May 2020 we see the real bull rally to new highs and possible to the higher band end of year 2021 (around 70.000 USD). The green line in between bands represents this scenario.
- Rallies become less aggressive over time (first low to high 80 degrees angle, second 60 degrees, third 40 degrees), so a 20 degrees angle to next ATH would be in the line of expectation. (from 7.500 beginning 2020 to 70.000 end of 2021).
- All in all if price stays between the bands end of 2024 we have a bitcoin worth between 40.000 and 100.000 USD while it is trading around 10.500 at the moment.
For now I would suggest buy the lows and long till the gong to new all time highs.
Please share your thought and feedback is appreciated. Good luck trading this monster.
- vertical lines represent reward halvings and highs in between these halvings.
- Green dotted line is extremely bullish scenario, red dotted line is extremely bearish scenario. The reality will be somewhere in between, nobody knows for sure...
Observations:
- High is never during the time of halving but somewhere in between halvings.
- During halving events price rides the lower band on the log chart.
- The low point after high is few months before halving (during the halving event it is already in an uptrend).
Expectations:
- During 2020 halving the price of Bitcoin is riding the lower band (between 6.000 & 7.000 USD).
- End of Year 2019 we could see a push up to new highs (around 40.000 USD) but I think it is too close before the halving event and it would be unique based on historical patterns. It could be caused by a catalyst like ETF launch or something of the sort.
- End of year 2019 we could have crashed to the red line (around 1.200 USD), what some people would see as the C wave of the EW's. I think this is overly bearish because we would break the lower band. This could be caused by a unique event similar to MT. Gox hack in 2013/2014. Some people see Tether manipulation as a reason this could happen, I personally do not.
- More likely would be more sideways or slightly down to the lower band, and riding it slowly upwards. After halving event May 2020 we see the real bull rally to new highs and possible to the higher band end of year 2021 (around 70.000 USD). The green line in between bands represents this scenario.
- Rallies become less aggressive over time (first low to high 80 degrees angle, second 60 degrees, third 40 degrees), so a 20 degrees angle to next ATH would be in the line of expectation. (from 7.500 beginning 2020 to 70.000 end of 2021).
- All in all if price stays between the bands end of 2024 we have a bitcoin worth between 40.000 and 100.000 USD while it is trading around 10.500 at the moment.
For now I would suggest buy the lows and long till the gong to new all time highs.
Please share your thought and feedback is appreciated. Good luck trading this monster.
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