PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 FEB 2023 Expiry
What good was done yesterday is undone today, we had a resistance rejection as well as the support breach -
BANKNIFTY below 41624 again !
Most of them would have guessed it right thatBANKNIFTY wont break out from the 41940 resistance zone. But very few would have guessed that we will have a breakdown of the support level 41624. The one we just cut through in the last 1 hr of trade yesterday.
On one hand i am feeling happy that my 1hr TF analysis from yesterday worked out, but i am kind of feeling sad that my 41600 PE buy went to zero today. The fall came very late in the day not helping the premium to surge.
The open was gap up right at the resistance level at 41925, the gap was not closed until 10.20. Even though small the small recovery from 10.30 to 11.00 is what killed the premium in 41600 PE today.
The fall was lacking speed due to which the premiums were fast eroding, the fall of 0.65% ~ 274pts came only by 13.00. The minor pull back of 157 pts by 13.30 nailed the premium decay part.
But what followed from 13.40 to the close should not be taken lightly, this time we had the momentum as well as the distance. A fall of 0.71% ~ 298pts with the 5 out of 6 candles in red. 186 pts of 298 came in last 30mts. What this did was to knock off the support level which we broke out yesterday.
So the break creates a negative sentiment now, we will wait and watch before taking any aggressive bets.
---
15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, but today's support break is a red flag.
---
1hr TF - look at the red candles today, we had just 1 green spinning top (irrelevant) at 13.15. The fall came from the important level near 42000 from where we had aggressive selling on 1st Feb.
BANKNIFTY below 41624 again !Most of them would have guessed it right that
BANKNIFTY wont break out from the 41940 resistance zone. But very few would have guessed that we will have a breakdown of the support level 41624. The one we just cut through in the last 1 hr of trade yesterday.On one hand i am feeling happy that my 1hr TF analysis from yesterday worked out, but i am kind of feeling sad that my 41600 PE buy went to zero today. The fall came very late in the day not helping the premium to surge.
The open was gap up right at the resistance level at 41925, the gap was not closed until 10.20. Even though small the small recovery from 10.30 to 11.00 is what killed the premium in 41600 PE today.
The fall was lacking speed due to which the premiums were fast eroding, the fall of 0.65% ~ 274pts came only by 13.00. The minor pull back of 157 pts by 13.30 nailed the premium decay part.
But what followed from 13.40 to the close should not be taken lightly, this time we had the momentum as well as the distance. A fall of 0.71% ~ 298pts with the 5 out of 6 candles in red. 186 pts of 298 came in last 30mts. What this did was to knock off the support level which we broke out yesterday.
So the break creates a negative sentiment now, we will wait and watch before taking any aggressive bets.
---
15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, but today's support break is a red flag.
---
1hr TF - look at the red candles today, we had just 1 green spinning top (irrelevant) at 13.15. The fall came from the important level near 42000 from where we had aggressive selling on 1st Feb.
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