AUDUSD - POTENTIAL BULLISH REVERSAL COULD BE AT HAND.
There are several interpretation on longer term prospect for AUDUSD as some analyst of major banks ( technical-analysis.forexlive.com/!/audusd-elliot-wave-technical-analysis-from--morgan-stanley---targets-a-lot-lower-20150719 ), attempt to label the chart and I assume they know what they are talking about.
However, I am not sure about the move from 2008 low to 2001 high labelled as 5 wave impulse and likewise suggesting that we are now in 5 wave decline from 2011 high, in so doing it is suggested that the initial decline of 2011 high to October 2011 swing low qualifies as wave 1. If correct then in lower time frame it should have minor 5 waves. Count how you wish, I can only see a zigzag rather than 5 waves.
In contrast I see the entire rally from 2008 -2011 high as WXY zigzag and retracement since 2011 high as abc zigzag with wave c as possible ending diagonal, with approx low to form around 0.70
If correct I anticipate strong rally of this low either to retest 2011 high or as a part of complex correction with 0.86 - 0.95 as upside target.
Summary if technicals:
1. Initial decline from 2011 high to October 2011 swing low is a zigzag hence part of correction rather than new impulsive 5 wave decline.
2. Retrace to Feb 2012 high was also a zigzag.
3. Since the Feb high we have leading diagonal for form wave 1 which in turn is part of larger falling wedge (ending diagonal of potentially 3-3-3-3-3 construction) which is nearing completion around 0.70.
4. 0.70 is a 78.6% retracement of rally from 2008 - 2011 high and has confluence with other fib projections show on the chart.
5. Rising trendline from 2008 low also come in as potential support in that proximity.
6. price zone where previous structure highs and lows were formed.
7. General sentiments among traders is very bearish.
8. Finally we might see hidden bullish divergence in price where RSI might form new lower low compared with 2008 and price possibly making higher low.
9. Invalidation level strong close below 0.70
Incidentally, the above anticipated low seems to make sense when compared with Gold which has strong positive correlation with AUDUSD and is also forming its potentially ending diagonal to complete its correction since 2011 high.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
However, I am not sure about the move from 2008 low to 2001 high labelled as 5 wave impulse and likewise suggesting that we are now in 5 wave decline from 2011 high, in so doing it is suggested that the initial decline of 2011 high to October 2011 swing low qualifies as wave 1. If correct then in lower time frame it should have minor 5 waves. Count how you wish, I can only see a zigzag rather than 5 waves.
In contrast I see the entire rally from 2008 -2011 high as WXY zigzag and retracement since 2011 high as abc zigzag with wave c as possible ending diagonal, with approx low to form around 0.70
If correct I anticipate strong rally of this low either to retest 2011 high or as a part of complex correction with 0.86 - 0.95 as upside target.
Summary if technicals:
1. Initial decline from 2011 high to October 2011 swing low is a zigzag hence part of correction rather than new impulsive 5 wave decline.
2. Retrace to Feb 2012 high was also a zigzag.
3. Since the Feb high we have leading diagonal for form wave 1 which in turn is part of larger falling wedge (ending diagonal of potentially 3-3-3-3-3 construction) which is nearing completion around 0.70.
4. 0.70 is a 78.6% retracement of rally from 2008 - 2011 high and has confluence with other fib projections show on the chart.
5. Rising trendline from 2008 low also come in as potential support in that proximity.
6. price zone where previous structure highs and lows were formed.
7. General sentiments among traders is very bearish.
8. Finally we might see hidden bullish divergence in price where RSI might form new lower low compared with 2008 and price possibly making higher low.
9. Invalidation level strong close below 0.70
Incidentally, the above anticipated low seems to make sense when compared with Gold which has strong positive correlation with AUDUSD and is also forming its potentially ending diagonal to complete its correction since 2011 high.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
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