G20 meeting results, OPEC & tough week

1 jul 2019

The G20 meeting was the main even however the markets were not so much interested in the summit as in one particular meeting Trump - Xi. At stake was the fate of trade negotiations between countries. Markets have been waiting for the end of the trade war. As we expected the leaders Trump and Xi agreed to resume trade negotiations on Saturday, June 29. The main surprise was the decision to allow US companies to sell Huawei products.

Against the background, safe haven assets have naturally undergone sales. However, returning to the negotiating table is not the end of the trade war. So today we will and buy gold, as well as the yen. For instance, sell USDJPY around $108.50 mark, and buy gold around $1385 mark.

While the markets are preparing for the OPEC meeting and the extension of OPEC + №2 (95% of the polled experts believe that the contract will be extended), and even its expansion, the US continues to take advantage of the moment and increase oil production. Oil production in the United States in April exceeded 12 million barrels per day, thus setting a new record. And the number of active oil installations in the United States has increased again. This time, according to Baker Hughes, it has increased by 4 pieces.

OPEC members will meet later on Monday. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia may reduce the rate (in this light, we recommend paying attention to AUDUSD sales). In addition, data on business activity in the US will be published and data on the NFP will end up the week.

Our trading preferences this week are as follows: we will look for points for sales of the dollar and the Russian ruble. Sell USDJPY, in addition from now on we will build up a short position in the AUDUSD pair. Oil is still paused until the OPEC meeting results announcement. As for gold, this week we will work without obvious preferences, selling from overbought and buying from overselling areas.