With RBA switching their policy stance into neutral early this year, traders have reduced their expectations for futher interest rate cut from RBA. As a result, AUD has been recovering nicely since early this year. One pair which shows a clear structure to participate in the AUD recovery is AUD/CHF.
From the high in Aug 2012, we can clearly see five waves down in AUD / CHF. This looks to be a textbook structure of 5 impulsive waves:
1. Wave 3 = 1.618 x Wave 1
2. Wave 5 = Wave 1
3. Wave 5 loss of momentum is confirmed with the RSI divergence at the end of Wave 5
AUD / CHF is likely in 3 waves correction right now. Wave (C) = Wave (A) at 0.87 and this is probably just the first wave A of the three waves ABC correction. Following retracement to wave B later, the pair is likely to resume higher again and likely to target 50% retracement of the whole drop at 0.9015.
Follow my twitter handle for further update of this trade idea and others @cmellon1976
From the high in Aug 2012, we can clearly see five waves down in AUD / CHF. This looks to be a textbook structure of 5 impulsive waves:
1. Wave 3 = 1.618 x Wave 1
2. Wave 5 = Wave 1
3. Wave 5 loss of momentum is confirmed with the RSI divergence at the end of Wave 5
AUD / CHF is likely in 3 waves correction right now. Wave (C) = Wave (A) at 0.87 and this is probably just the first wave A of the three waves ABC correction. Following retracement to wave B later, the pair is likely to resume higher again and likely to target 50% retracement of the whole drop at 0.9015.
Follow my twitter handle for further update of this trade idea and others @cmellon1976
