Price Close Probability

10 ago

The Price Close Probability Indicator is designed to help traders estimate the likelihood of price closing above or below specified levels within a given bar. By placing two levels on your chart, you can quickly gauge the probability of the current price bar closing above or below these levels in real-time.

Key Features:

• Dynamic Probability Calculation: The indicator continuously updates the probability of price closing above or below your set levels as the current bar progresses, providing you with timely insights as the bar approaches its close.
  
• Customizable Standard Deviation: Adjust the length of the Standard Deviation used in the calculations to tailor the probability estimates to your preferred settings.
  
• User-Friendly Probability Table: A clean, easy-to-read table displays the calculated probabilities, helping you make informed trading decisions at a glance.
  

Assumptions and Considerations:
While the indicator assumes that returns are normally distributed, which may not fully reflect reality, it still offers a valuable approximation of the probabilities for price movement within the current bar.

Future Enhancements (Coming Soon):

Multi-Bar Probability: Calculate probabilities across multiple bars to enhance your forecasting capabilities.
Additional Levels: Set more than two levels for a broader analysis of price movements.
Refined Distribution Modeling: Improve the accuracy of probability calculations by adjusting for more realistic return distributions.

Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.