Citi expects copper to recover to $9,500/t within three months

Copper prices will likely struggle for direction in the coming weeks, before recovering to $9,500 per ton within three months and touching $11,000 by early 2025, Citi Research said in a note on Friday.

This compares to previous 0-3 month and 6-12 month price forecasts of $10,000 and $12,000, respectively.

The bank attributed the expected rally to a recovery in global manufacturing sentiment driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts and expected inventory draws and deficits in the second half of 2024.

"We believe strong growth in China’s refined copper output and visible inventories... for the most part reflect unsustainable scrap market and consumer destocking in response to earlier price highs and arbitrage dynamics that will reverse at these lower ~$9,000/ton price levels," Citi said.

The bank has moderated its bullish average price forecasts for 2025/2026 to reflect "growing confidence that the market can avoid forecast deficits through substitution and increased scrap recoveries with a less substantial and sustained rally in price," analysts said.

Copper prices were trading below $9,100 per ton level on Friday, as concerns over demand in top consumer China weighed.