Hey, I've been looking at grains a bit and I think wheat could be going down.
On a pullback there is a good r to r.
It is on a global downtrend and it convincingly broke to new lows on the lower TF.
It sort of always goes down around this period
Global trade & weather have a big impact I guess.
Here you can see the past weather: www.timeanddate.com/...usa/chicago/historic
Here are averages: www.holiday-weather....om/chicago/averages/
Chicago is in the averages. Most places are below, France has had a freezing summer brrr.
The weather data is obviously run by climate deniers.
The CME website: www.cmegroup.com/tra...ain-and-oilseed.html
The biggest producers of wheat are the same old same old... China USA India Europe South-South-America. And to a lesser extent pretty much everywhere except Africa.
Some of the top biggest exporters are Russia Canada the USA France Argentina Ukraine...
Argentina I think is the biggest net exporter there is in % of what they produce. India is self sufficient, China is barely I think.
I could list all the net exporters but it's easy to remember. It's the white countries.
Basically the most important weathers I think are NA & Europe.
And China news/catastrophic crop ==> boom.
Probably will trend down, hopefully without too much choppy pullbacks.
Would be nice to look at something other than gold here and there.
On a pullback there is a good r to r.
It is on a global downtrend and it convincingly broke to new lows on the lower TF.
It sort of always goes down around this period
Global trade & weather have a big impact I guess.
Here you can see the past weather: www.timeanddate.com/...usa/chicago/historic
Here are averages: www.holiday-weather....om/chicago/averages/
Chicago is in the averages. Most places are below, France has had a freezing summer brrr.
The weather data is obviously run by climate deniers.
The CME website: www.cmegroup.com/tra...ain-and-oilseed.html
The biggest producers of wheat are the same old same old... China USA India Europe South-South-America. And to a lesser extent pretty much everywhere except Africa.
Some of the top biggest exporters are Russia Canada the USA France Argentina Ukraine...
Argentina I think is the biggest net exporter there is in % of what they produce. India is self sufficient, China is barely I think.
I could list all the net exporters but it's easy to remember. It's the white countries.
Basically the most important weathers I think are NA & Europe.
And China news/catastrophic crop ==> boom.
Probably will trend down, hopefully without too much choppy pullbacks.
Would be nice to look at something other than gold here and there.
Orden cancelada:
Ah man barely missed it I am so disappointed.
There is a delay on trading view but it made new lows.
The "sucker rally" is over.
And of course it dropped straight down no hesitation.
I was maybe too greedy to have a maximum risk to reward.
I am really so disappointed.
I am giving up I will not try to chase it the spread is too big to zoom in on minutes charts.
Maybe they'll be another decent pullback pattern.
Hopefully gold will keep going up and always be there for me (for the next month or so).
There is a delay on trading view but it made new lows.
The "sucker rally" is over.
And of course it dropped straight down no hesitation.
I was maybe too greedy to have a maximum risk to reward.
I am really so disappointed.
I am giving up I will not try to chase it the spread is too big to zoom in on minutes charts.
Maybe they'll be another decent pullback pattern.
Hopefully gold will keep going up and always be there for me (for the next month or so).
Operación activa:
I don't have the slightest clue what I'm doing 🎰
Let's gamble! All on red.
Let's gamble! All on red.
Comentarios:
I knew it all along 😏
It was obvious the price would drop.
Made new lows already, the price dropped at light speed.
I'm just that good. My expertise in - checks notes - grains is unmatched.
I am at 1.5R, I will quickly move my stop loss at breakeven to 0.5R, not because I am afraid to lose money and don't know what I am doing, of course not, but because I am a master and know this is what you are supposed to do.
The price hesistated a bit at the previous lows (scalpers and bagholders?)
and is hesitating a bit below it too. Hopefu - er I mean with certitude I expect it to drop soon.
In all seriousness I don't think it should go up again if this is right, if it goes up it could mean either reversal or a long period of hesitating back and forth and this is not what this trade idea is. So best to move that SL at breakeven + already and then when it gets going down just ride it with a stop loss wide enough, not sure yet maybe 2R away.
It was obvious the price would drop.
Made new lows already, the price dropped at light speed.
I'm just that good. My expertise in - checks notes - grains is unmatched.
I am at 1.5R, I will quickly move my stop loss at breakeven to 0.5R, not because I am afraid to lose money and don't know what I am doing, of course not, but because I am a master and know this is what you are supposed to do.
The price hesistated a bit at the previous lows (scalpers and bagholders?)
and is hesitating a bit below it too. Hopefu - er I mean with certitude I expect it to drop soon.
In all seriousness I don't think it should go up again if this is right, if it goes up it could mean either reversal or a long period of hesitating back and forth and this is not what this trade idea is. So best to move that SL at breakeven + already and then when it gets going down just ride it with a stop loss wide enough, not sure yet maybe 2R away.
Comentarios:
How I'll trail for now. If there is a big dump I'll do something else, if it sideways for too long too.
It reminds me of something...
It's going down I can smell it! Wishful thinking.
It reminds me of something...
It's going down I can smell it! Wishful thinking.
Comentarios:
Big red candle in 5-10 minutes.
Almost at 3R. Placing SL at 1R and counting this as a win hurrah.
Almost at 3R. Placing SL at 1R and counting this as a win hurrah.
Comentarios:
Duuuude there is a CASINO operating this scam!
AGAIN! Big spike up just before going way down.
Of course all the retail noobies on fxcm are furiously buying with tremendous volume, but on the cme too apparently 😂
If it does this all the time I'm going to study it carefuly and I'll go full time into wheat and make millions. One can only hope...
Since the price reached a satisfying 5R, it is a good time to check our trailing stop.
More than 5R is getting ambitious but not impossible of course, 10R is pretty ambitious and does not happen often, over 10R is dreaming.
So I think as the price goes midway there, below 4.75 per bushel, I'll tighten up my stop to less than 2R(10c) as tight as 1R maybe but it will depend on price action I don't want to be too eager to snap my profit away and get stopped by noise just before a big drop. For now I'll leave it at 10c which is plenty and 2R, so I'm nearly guarenteed 3R out of this.
No point having a wide stop when it gets to 6-7R+, how much more can I realisticaly get out of it?
It's not like wheat is going to become free, and why risk 2R to make an additional 2R maybe? And why go for a 10% chance of making 10R when you have say a 33% chance of making 4 to 7R?!
Well I don't really know, I'll set my SL to 3R for now and then I'll probably just go on intuition.
AGAIN! Big spike up just before going way down.
Of course all the retail noobies on fxcm are furiously buying with tremendous volume, but on the cme too apparently 😂
If it does this all the time I'm going to study it carefuly and I'll go full time into wheat and make millions. One can only hope...
Since the price reached a satisfying 5R, it is a good time to check our trailing stop.
More than 5R is getting ambitious but not impossible of course, 10R is pretty ambitious and does not happen often, over 10R is dreaming.
So I think as the price goes midway there, below 4.75 per bushel, I'll tighten up my stop to less than 2R(10c) as tight as 1R maybe but it will depend on price action I don't want to be too eager to snap my profit away and get stopped by noise just before a big drop. For now I'll leave it at 10c which is plenty and 2R, so I'm nearly guarenteed 3R out of this.
No point having a wide stop when it gets to 6-7R+, how much more can I realisticaly get out of it?
It's not like wheat is going to become free, and why risk 2R to make an additional 2R maybe? And why go for a 10% chance of making 10R when you have say a 33% chance of making 4 to 7R?!
Well I don't really know, I'll set my SL to 3R for now and then I'll probably just go on intuition.
Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado:
Maybe it starts a weak trend out in which case we wouldn't miss out much.
Well I tried. 3R.
Well I tried. 3R.
Comentarios:
Wow this is already 1 month old.
Grains all just going way up.
I'm scared I lose :(
This feeling when you make a big +5 and then it's -1 .... -1 ... +1 .... breakeven ... -1
And you think it will never stop and you'll give it all back.
Can't keep losing thought right? Have to win eventually? Even if I make +5 then take 10 different outcomes that cancel each other it is ok, I just lose ~0.5-1 in fees.
Grains all just going way up.
I'm scared I lose :(
This feeling when you make a big +5 and then it's -1 .... -1 ... +1 .... breakeven ... -1
And you think it will never stop and you'll give it all back.
Can't keep losing thought right? Have to win eventually? Even if I make +5 then take 10 different outcomes that cancel each other it is ok, I just lose ~0.5-1 in fees.
I am just giving it a try, maybe it's not that good.
There is not that much interest in those, and perhaps since europeans & offshoots are overproducing so much (and co2 emissions rising yields tremendously and birth rates being low) there is not much need for speculators in agriculture so much anymore, so there is not much money to extract.
Nationalism, import/export wars, closed borders because covid, and complete economic shutdowns, might chance that. We need socialism so people starve to death and we can start making money!
In 2014-2015 there were plenty of 1 sided trends
Since then...
Sometimes you have those trends
Back in April plenty of country sugar productions took huge dips, and demand won't ever drop as drug addicts can't break free ever.
I think the price crash was because the EU deleted some quotas in late Q1.
I just want to look at something different, but if to know when to look at the chart (when there will be trends) I have to check specific news all the time (just to be ready when it trends once a year), that's seems like too much work just for me.
I still can take an interest and some day I'll use a service/hire people to watch this for me...
Always monetary policies forex forex forex money printing correlated currencies & Oil USD USD USD USD USD all the time makes Homer go crazy.