Fed and Market Still at Odds Over Hike

13 jul 2015

Despite Yellen's remarks Friday reinforcing the views that were offered up at the policy meeting in June - that notably maintained a forecast for 50 bps worth of hikes before the year is out - the market is still very doubtful. Here we have Fed Fund futures which project rate expectations. Subtract the contract value from 100 to come to the rate forecast. Remember, the Fed is operating in a target 'range', so the median for the current rate is 0.125% and the first full hike would thereby bring us to 0.375% (an average). We don't hit that threshold - fully pricing in the first hike - until around the time of the March 16, 2016 FOMC meeting.