XRP Market Structure Still Replicating Late 2016!
What if I told you that despite the Ripple/SEC lawsuit, the impact of XRP trading halts, and the absolute panic selling that has taken place in XRP, XRP remains well positioned in a long-term bullish setup? That's what I'm seeing on the chart at the moment. Now that could obviously change, but currently, I don't see any real reason to panic. In fact, I see the exact opposite. I see a very rare buying opportunity — one that doesn't usually present itself in the beginning stages of a confirmed crypto bull market. So, let's look at this weekly XRP chart, and I'll show you what I mean.
Starting on the left side of the chart, you can see that XRP printed a high in late 2014, and then entered a long sideways consolidation that lasted until early 2017. We had clear support around the 0.0045 region (green base) and a falling level of resistance (pink falling trendline.) That overall structure (the high, the sideways consolidation, the falling resistance overhead, and the flat base support) is a strikingly similar market structure to what we are seeing today. Digging further into the formation in 2016, we can see that when price broke out above the falling pink trendline, the rally was capped by a test of the 23.6% retrace. From there, price returned to the top of the falling pink trendline, and held it continuously as support for about 100 days. During that time, XRP also fell below the 50 week moving average (in orange.) Then, XRP exploded higher, rallying exactly to the 2.618 retrace. From there, we saw a pullback, and then another rally, this time exactly to the 16 retrace. Price entered a sideways correction, followed by an explosive rally, which ultimately capped off at the 128 retrace, EXACTLY. What's odd and interesting about that, is the fact that 128 is a multiple of 16, which is nearly a multiple of 2.618, which is nearly a multiple of 0.236. I think that apparent coincidence (or not) is really fascinating.
Anyway, if we compare that to today's structure, we can see that it is still extremely similar. Aside from the obvious similarities in structure, we can see that after XRP broke out above the falling pink trendline, it rallied to the 23.6% retrace, and has now retraced back to the falling pink trendline and below the 50 week moving average, exactly as it did in late 2016/early 2017. So, as long as XRP can hold continuous support on the pink trendline, I think it's safe to say that we're clearly seeing a pattern in price action. If that pattern persists, the next thing to expect would be an explosive rally, presumably after a 100 or so day consolidation on the pink falling trendline. Where could that "explosive" rally take us? Well, if it were to mimic the 2017 rally (and we have no reason to believe that it won't, because the market structure is the same now as it was then) we should expect the first stop to be the 2.618 retrace again, around $9. From there, I would expect a rather large pullback, followed by a push to the 16 retrace, around $55. From there, a consolidation, and for the absolute moon shot, an explosion to the 128 retrace, which is at about $445.
While that sounds like a beautiful outcome for XRP investors, I'm not so sure how likely it is that XRP would replicate that pattern exactly. It's possible, but I'm not sure how likely it is. Ultimately, the current chart correlates almost perfectly with the structure of from 2014-early 2017. So, there technically is no reason to believe that it won't continue to correlate, until we can see that there is a clear deviation of the pattern. While XRP IS deviating from the crypto space right now, I've just shown how it is NOT deviating from replicating it's previous market structure.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Starting on the left side of the chart, you can see that XRP printed a high in late 2014, and then entered a long sideways consolidation that lasted until early 2017. We had clear support around the 0.0045 region (green base) and a falling level of resistance (pink falling trendline.) That overall structure (the high, the sideways consolidation, the falling resistance overhead, and the flat base support) is a strikingly similar market structure to what we are seeing today. Digging further into the formation in 2016, we can see that when price broke out above the falling pink trendline, the rally was capped by a test of the 23.6% retrace. From there, price returned to the top of the falling pink trendline, and held it continuously as support for about 100 days. During that time, XRP also fell below the 50 week moving average (in orange.) Then, XRP exploded higher, rallying exactly to the 2.618 retrace. From there, we saw a pullback, and then another rally, this time exactly to the 16 retrace. Price entered a sideways correction, followed by an explosive rally, which ultimately capped off at the 128 retrace, EXACTLY. What's odd and interesting about that, is the fact that 128 is a multiple of 16, which is nearly a multiple of 2.618, which is nearly a multiple of 0.236. I think that apparent coincidence (or not) is really fascinating.
Anyway, if we compare that to today's structure, we can see that it is still extremely similar. Aside from the obvious similarities in structure, we can see that after XRP broke out above the falling pink trendline, it rallied to the 23.6% retrace, and has now retraced back to the falling pink trendline and below the 50 week moving average, exactly as it did in late 2016/early 2017. So, as long as XRP can hold continuous support on the pink trendline, I think it's safe to say that we're clearly seeing a pattern in price action. If that pattern persists, the next thing to expect would be an explosive rally, presumably after a 100 or so day consolidation on the pink falling trendline. Where could that "explosive" rally take us? Well, if it were to mimic the 2017 rally (and we have no reason to believe that it won't, because the market structure is the same now as it was then) we should expect the first stop to be the 2.618 retrace again, around $9. From there, I would expect a rather large pullback, followed by a push to the 16 retrace, around $55. From there, a consolidation, and for the absolute moon shot, an explosion to the 128 retrace, which is at about $445.
While that sounds like a beautiful outcome for XRP investors, I'm not so sure how likely it is that XRP would replicate that pattern exactly. It's possible, but I'm not sure how likely it is. Ultimately, the current chart correlates almost perfectly with the structure of from 2014-early 2017. So, there technically is no reason to believe that it won't continue to correlate, until we can see that there is a clear deviation of the pattern. While XRP IS deviating from the crypto space right now, I've just shown how it is NOT deviating from replicating it's previous market structure.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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